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| Date: 2010-03-06 S&P Value: 1139 |
| GTSOSC +330 GTSMA +196 10day TRIN 1.13 CYCLE 1 /DAY 24 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " We believe one more short rally may occur early next week but we are very near the top of Cycle 1." Cycle 1 is now topping at overbought levels and a sharp sell-off should kick off Cycle 2 next week. A significant break below GTSMA by GTSOSC will confirm the beginning of Cycle 2 down. |
| Date: 2010-02-27 S&P Value: 1104 |
| GTSOSC +153 GTSMA +77 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE 1 /DAY 19 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " All our indicators are approaching overbought levels and an average length Cycle 1 would complete in another 4 business days on Feb 25." We believe one more short rally may occur early next week but we are very near the top of Cycle 1. We are looking to identify another selling opportunity at the top of Cycle 1. |
| Date: 2010-02-20 S&P Value: 1109 |
| GTSOSC +229 GTSMA -36 10day TRIN 1.01 CYCLE 1 /DAY 14 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " It is possible that the C cycle completed at the lows on Feb 5 when intra day readings of GTSOSC and TRIN may have reached our oversold targets." We were still expecting a retest, which typically occurs early in Cycle 1. However, the strength of the rally this week has caused us to re-examine our labelling. We have decided that the retest had already ocurred on Feb 5, with the original C Cycle bottom being completed on Jan 29. We now position the market at day 14 of Cycle 1. All our indicators are approaching overbought levels and an average length Cycle 1 would complete in another 4 business days on Feb 25. Most short positions would have been stopped out on this rally. We are holding our latest one at 1081 and will look to identify another selling opportunity at the top of Cycle 1. |
| Date: 2010-02-13 S&P Value: 1076 |
| GTSOSC -33 GTSMA -131 10day TRIN 1.32 CYCLE C /DAY 24 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " The rally Friday afternoon is suspect and we expect at least a retest of the lows soon." It is possible that the C cycle completed at the lows on Feb 5 when intra day readings of GTSOSC and TRIN may have reached our oversold targets. In any event, currently these indicator levels are neutral and a retest of the lows would be normal. We remain in Sell mode, but we are nearing the end of the C Cycle and profits should be protected with trailing stops. |
| Date: 2010-02-06 S&P Value: 1067 |
| GTSOSC -197 GTSMA -117 10day TRIN 1.19 CYCLE C /DAY 19 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " Any attempts to rally early this week are likely to fail in short order and give way to a final sell-off into the C Cycle bottom." This is precisely what happened as, after a bounce into Wednesday morning, a sharp sell-off ensued right into Friday, which was our target date for the completion of Cycle C. GTSOSC and TRIN levels however are not yet where we would expect for a bottom. The rally Friday afternoon is suspect and we expect at least a retest of the lows soon. We remain in Sell mode, but we are nearing the end of the C Cycle and profits should be protected with trailing stops. |
| Date: 2010-01-30 S&P Value: 1074 |
| GTSOSC -232 GTSMA -10 10day TRIN 1.23 CYCLE C /DAY 14 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we expect GTSOSC levels to go below the Cycle A bottom (-315) before this decline is complete." As you can see from the indicator numbers above,we have at least a little further to go on GTSOSC, while GTSMA and TRIN are neutral. If the selling pressure continues unabated, we are likely to reach oversold levels and a possible bottom for Cycle C by the end of next week. Any attempts to rally early this week are likely to fail in short order and give way to a final sell-off into the C Cycle bottom. We remain in Sell mode with trailing stops. |
| Date: 2010-01-23 S&P Value: 1092 |
| GTSOSC -159 GTSMA +140 10day TRIN 1.37 CYCLE C /DAY 9
/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Cycle C began on Tuesday and we now expect downtrending markets until about Feb 4. Well folks, after that choppy, dragged out, 47 business day B Cycle, you are now seeing the characteristics of a true C Cycle down. A 5% drop in 3 days. If you look at our GTSOSC chart below, we expect GTSOSC levels to go below the Cycle A bottom (-315)on Oct 30 before this decline is complete, notwithstanding a few bounce attempts along the way. We remain in Sell mode with trailing stops. |
| Date: 2010-01-16 S&P Value: 1136 |
| GTSOSC +117 GTSMA +178 10day TRIN 1.10 CYCLE C /DAY 5
/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "We continue to expect Cycle C down to begin at any moment." This appears to be what happened this past week, as the markets were unable to break through recent highs and had 2 sharp reversals to the downside. Cycle C began on Tuesday and we now expect downtrending markets until about Feb 4 We remain in Sell mode but with close stops. |
| Date: 2010-01-09 S&P Value: 1145 |
| GTSOSC +244 GTSMA +176 10day TRIN 1.09 CYCLE B /DAY 47
/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we thought Cycle B was finally over but it continued into this seasonally bullish first week of January. We continue to expect Cycle C down to begin at any moment. When it does, the markets should be under downside pressure for about a month. We remain in Sell mode but with close stops. |
| Date: 2010-01-01 S&P Value: 1115 |
| GTSOSC +61 GTSMA +122 10day TRIN 1.37 CYCLE C /DAY 4 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " Overbought TRIN numbers may be the necessary missing piece to finally trigger the start of Cycle C , down." The TRIN has not yet reached overbought but we do have another downside break of GTSMA, so Cycle C may have begun on Tuesday. If so , the markets should be under downside pressure until about Jan 22. We remain in Sell mode but with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-12-26 S&P Value: 1126 |
| GTSOSC +231 GTSMA +92 10day TRIN 1.26 CYCLE B /DAY 38 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "The last two B Cycles have been long and complex ... and TRIN is already in oversold territory so we cannot rule out another test of the recent highs. The year-end adjusting of positions adds further complexity to the analysis." Xmas week saw exactly that, as the markets pushed above recent highs and so the B Cycle continues. The GTSOSC is overbought for a B Cycle but the TRIN is not. Overbought TRIN numbers may be the necessary missing piece to finally trigger the start of Cycle C , down. We remain in Sell mode but with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-12-18 S&P Value: 1103 |
| GTSOSC +19 GTSMA +76 10day TRIN 1.46 CYCLE C /DAY 4 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " This bounce is either a retest of the beginning of Cycle C or the last gasp of Cycle B." Well it appears to be the latter as the latest GTSOSC high for Cycle B2 occurred on Mon, Dec 14 and we are again below GTSMA which may indicate the start of Cycle C. The last two B Cycles have been long and complex however and TRIN is already in oversold territory so we cannot rule out another test of the recent highs. The year-end adjusting of positions adds further complexity to the analysis. We remain in Sell mode but with close stops. If this is the beginning of Cycle C, our target date for a bottom would be about Jan 12. |
| Date: 2009-12-12 S&P Value: 1106 |
| GTSOSC +98 GTSMA +62 10day TRIN 1.23 CYCLE C /DAY 5 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " Cycle B has extended..(but) Cycle C down is likely to start very soon. Well it might,in fact, have begun at the reversal on Dec 4. As we ended this week,the markets were bouncing back from a 3% sell-off into Wednesday morning. This bounce is either a retest of the beginning of Cycle C or the last gasp of Cycle B. We remain in Sell mode but with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-12-05 S&P Value: 1106 |
| GTSOSC +126 GTSMA +64 10day TRIN 1.05 CYCLE B /DAY 24 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "We now expect declining markets until about Dec 11." We thought the Dubai default news was an accelerating factor for Cycle C. The past week's sideways to up market action however, is not consistent with a C Cycle. We have come to the conclusion that the unusual 5.03 daily Trin reading on the half-day holiday trading on Nov 27 distorted our indicators and masked the likely continuation of Cycle B. We have chosen to adjust the Trin number for that day to neutral and the results can be seen in the charts below. We now believe that Cycle B has extended as in April /May of this year. If we are correct, Cycle C down is likely to start very soon. We remain in Sell mode but with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-11-28 S&P Value: 1087 |
| GTSOSC -105 GTSMA +63 10day TRIN 1.40 CYCLE C /DAY 8 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "We now expect declining markets until about Dec 11." The market was too comfortable enjoying Thanksgiving, however, so it took big default news out of Dubai to trigger a sharp sell-off. Cycle C remains in progress and we remain in Sell mode. |
| Date: 2009-11-21 S&P Value: 1091 |
| GTSOSC -20 GTSMA +46 10day TRIN .99 CYCLE C /DAY 4 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " we only require a significant downward break of the GTSMA (green line) to confirm the start of Cycle C down." After a final burst, the B cycle completed on Monday and Cycle C was confirmed with a GTSMA break on Thursday. We now expect declining markets until about Dec 11 We remain in Sell mode. |
| Date: 2009-11-14 S&P Value: 1093 |
| GTSOSC +95 GTSMA -91 10day TRIN .95 CYCLE C /DAY 2 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "That would make this bounce Cycle B which is also likely to be of short duration and give way to a sharp sell-off in Cycle C very soon." Well Wednesday's gap up, spike top and reversal may have been the completion of Cycle B. Our indicators are all consistent with a B cycle top: GTSOSC reached 114 (a typical B cycle topping level); 10 day TRIN is overbought at .95 and we only require a significant downward break of the GTSMA (green line) to confirm the start of Cycle C down. We remain in Sell mode. |
| Date: 2009-11-07 S&P Value: 1069 |
| GTSOSC -36 GTSMA -139 10day TRIN 1.28 CYCLE B /DAY 5 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "a few days of bounce may occur here, before the decline resumes." Well the bounce lasted all week and we are inclined to believe that Cycle A completed last Friday, Oct 30, at an early 11 days duration. That would make this bounce Cycle B which is also likely to be of short duration and give way to a sharp sell-off in Cycle C very soon. We remain in Sell mode. |
| Date: 2009-10-31 S&P Value: 1036 |
| GTSOSC -315 GTSMA -16 10day TRIN 1.54 CYCLE A /DAY 11 / avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "We now expect Cycle A to keep the stock market under downside pressure until about November 6." Well Cycle A has made a good start for the next leg of the Bear Market, with a 4% sell-off for the week. We have reached oversold levels on TRIN and GTSOSC, so a few days of bounce may occur here, before the decline resumes. |
| Date: 2009-10-24 S&P Value: 1079 |
| GTSOSC -31 GTSMA +121 10day TRIN 1.20 CYCLE A /DAY 6 / avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Friday's downturn may be the start of Cycle A down." Despite this week's choppy action, the market finished firmly down for the week and GTSOSC made a significant downward crossing of GTSMA to confirm another Sell Signal. We now expect Cycle A to keep the stock market under downside pressure untuil about November 6. |
| Date: 2009-10-17 S&P Value: 1088 |
| GTSOSC +146 GTSMA +75 10day TRIN .89 CYCLE A /DAY 1 / avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we don't expect Cycle 5 to make it to its average 20 day length." So , after 9 days of Cycle 5, we have turned down from a peak GTSOSC of 222 and have reached the first overbought 10 day TRIN reading since late August. In other words Friday's downturn may be the start of Cycle A down. If Cycle 5 is not yet complete, it is very close. We continue to expect the resumption of the bear market which began in October 2007. |
| Date: 2009-10-10 S&P Value: 1071 |
| GTSOSC +165 GTSMA +41 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE 5 /DAY 5 / avg 20 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we may have a small bounce early next week to work off the short term oversold condition." Well it looks as if the bounce turned out to be the beginning of Cycle 5 up. This would mean that Cycle 4 was only 12 days long rather than its 23 day average duration. With GTSOSC already at +165 and 10 day TRIN likely to be overbought within 3 or 4 days we don't expect Cycle 5 to make it to its average 20 day length. We continue to regard any further rally as a last opportunity to position for the resumption of the bear market which began in October 2007. |
| Date: 2009-10-03 S&P Value: 1025 |
| GTSOSC -151 GTSMA +134 10day TRIN 1.34 CYCLE 4 /DAY 12 / avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " some retest probes to the upside are possible before the Cycle 4 exerts its full downside pressure." Well a small retest rally carried until Tuesday then Cycle 4 took over. The downside momentum increased quickly, so we may have a small bounce early next week to work off the short term oversold condition. In any event, we remain in Sell Signal mode, expecting a downtrend in the markets until about October 20. |
| Date: 2009-09-26 S&P Value: 1044 |
| GTSOSC +11 GTSMA +235 10day TRIN 1.39 CYCLE 4 /DAY 7 / avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "the top of Cycle 3 is imminent." and "Although some further rally is possible over the next week, we expect the Cycle 3 top to provide the best selling opportunity since October 2007." In fact the top of Cycle 3 in the GTSOSC co-incided with those comments and the "further rally" took place until Wednesday afternoon, when a sharp reversal to the downside and a significant crossing of GTSMA, announced the beginning of Cycle 4. This down cycle is notorious for being "complex & choppy" (see Learn GTSOSC page) so some retest probes to the upside are possible before the Cycle exerts its full downside pressure. In any event, we remain in Sell Signal mode, expecting a downtrend in the markets until about October 20. |
| Date: 2009-09-20 S&P Value: 1068 |
| GTSOSC +309 GTSMA +196 10day TRIN 1.18 CYCLE 3 /DAY 11 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "The sharp rally of Cycle 3 ... is likely to reach a top within the next 2 weeks." Another week of rally has now passed and the top of Cycle 3 is imminent. Although some further rally is possible over the next week, we expect the Cycle 3 top to provide the best selling opportunity since October 2007. |
| Date: 2009-09-12 S&P Value: 0 |
| GTSOSC +244 GTSMA +153 10day TRIN 1.25 CYCLE 3 /DAY 6 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Next weeks action should quickly clarify whether we are still in Cycle 2 down or have completed the turn up into Cycle 3, which would be a sharp rally of 2 or 3 weeks duration." The clarification came immediately with a gap opening on Tuesday, jumping over the S&P resistance at 1016 and was confirmed by a significant move by GTSOSC above GTSMA on Wednesday. The sharp rally of Cycle 3 has now been in progress for 6 days and is likely to reach a top within the next 2 weeks. Despite the GTSOSC position, we have no interest in playing the buy side of this late stage of the Bear Market Rally. We expect the Cycle 3 top to provide the best selling opportunity since October 2007. |
| Date: 2009-09-12 S&P Value: 1043 |
| GTSOSC +244 GTSMA +153 10day TRIN 1.25 CYCLE 3 /DAY 6 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Next weeks action should quickly clarify whether we are still in Cycle 2 down or have completed the turn up into Cycle 3, which would be a sharp rally of 2 or 3 weeks duration." The clarification came immediately with a gap opening on Tuesday, jumping over the S&P resistance at 1016 and was confirmed by a significant move by GTSOSC above GTSMA on Wednesday. The sharp rally of Cycle 3 has now been in progress for 6 days and is likely to reach a top within the next 2 weeks. Despite the GTSOSC position, we have no interest in playing the buy side of this late stage of the Bear Market Rally. We expect the Cycle 3 top to provide the best selling opportunity since October 2007. |
| Date: 2009-09-05 S&P Value: 1016 |
| GTSOSC +112 GTSMA +148 10day TRIN 1.10 CYCLE 2 /DAY 23 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said that we were, "probably (at) the beginning of a fast decline into the Cycle 2B bottom." The 3 day decline of 3.5% may have been all that was required to complete Cycle 2 but we certainly didn't reach oversold levels on any of our indicators and GTSOSC is still below GTSMA. Furthermore, Friday's rally on the day before a holiday weekend could easily be a flash in the pan. Next weeks action should quickly clarify whether we are still in Cycle 2 down or have completed the turn up into Cycle 3, which would be a sharp rally of 2 or 3 weeks duration. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-08-29 S&P Value: 1029 |
| GTSOSC +213 GTSMA +200 10day TRIN .87 CYCLE 2 /DAY 18 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "GTSOSC normally makes a double bottom on Cycle 2, so we think it is unlikely the decline is over." The market made no net progress over the week but showed an important reversal down on Friday. This was probably the beginning of a fast decline into the Cycle 2B bottom. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-08-22 S&P Value: 1026 |
| GTSOSC +270 GTSMA +222 10day TRIN 1.04 CYCLE 2 /DAY 13 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "downturn has begun and should accelerate on a break below 990on the SP500." The acceleration lasted only one day before reversal and quickly carried above recent highs . GTSOSC normally makes a double bottom on Cycle 2, so we think it is unlikely the decline is over but will re-evaluate next week. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-08-17 S&P Value: 1004 |
| GTSOSC +188 GTSMA +288 10day TRIN .83 CYCLE 2 /DAY 8 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: We apologize for our recent technical difficulties. If you have had problems accessing our analysis over the last couple of weeks,you can catch up on the Analysis Archives link. Now for this weeks update which was written yesterday. Last week we said, "we expect a downturn next week which should last into the end of August." That downturn has begun and should accelerate on a break below 990on the SP500 We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-08-08 S&P Value: 1010 |
| GTSOSC +335 GTSMA +316 10day TRIN .86 CYCLE 2 /DAY 3 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "It only remains for a significant downside crossing of GTSMA to confirm that Cycle 2,down, is in progress." That crossing did occur on Thursday but was reversed on Friday. Despite this, all our indicators call for a top so we expect a downturn next week which should last into the end of August. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-08-01 S&P Value: 987 |
| GTSOSC +295 GTSMA +268 10day TRIN 1.11 CYCLE 2 /DAY 4 / avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle 1 appears to have ended on Monday of this past week, Thursday's opening burst notwithstanding (coincident with "errors" in reported TRIN numbers). It only remains for a significant downside crossing of GTSMA to confirm that Cycle 2,down, is in progress. If that happens this week, we expect declining markets until about 17 August. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-07-25 S&P Value: 979 |
| GTSOSC +354 GTSMA +117 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE 1 /DAY 23 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "there may be a little more to this rally, but a return to declining markets in Cycle 2 down is expected soon." Obviously that turn has not yet begun. Our regular charts of GTSOSC, GTSMA and TRIN below, show the extended nature of this Cycle 1. The delta (distance of GTSOSC above GTSMA)also calls for at least a short term reversal. This week we have chosen to substitute our unique Greed_Fear chart in place of our regular SP500 chart. We want you to be aware that the level of Greed has risen to October 2007 levels, indicating that todays' buyers have again forgotten the old adage that "bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered." We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-07-18 S&P Value: 940 |
| GTSOSC +208 GTSMA +7 10day TRIN 1.10 CYCLE 1 /DAY 18 / avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " the GTSOSC did not take out its June 23 low, so a successful retest remains a possibility. Next week's action should clarify the Cycle position." Well, the market wasted no time confirming the retest and that we are in Cycle 1, up, as it rose strongly all week. The two important factors now are that GTSOSC has reached a topping level and that Cycle 1 has been in progress since June 23 and therefore has already run to the end of its normal duration. Since 10 day TRIN has not yet reached overbought levels, there may be a little more to this rally, but a return to declining markets in Cycle 2 down is expected soon. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-07-11 S&P Value: 879 |
| GTSOSC -163 GTSMA -46 10day TRIN 1.45 CYCLE C /DAY 45? / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Either the C cycle ended on June 23 and is retesting that low now, or the selling will accelerate next week." Well the selling did accelerate but, not much and the GTSOSC did not take out its June 23 low, so a successful retest remains a possibility. Next week's action should clarify the Cycle position. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-07-04 S&P Value: 896 |
| GTSOSC -14 GTSMA -46 10day TRIN 1.30 CYCLE C /DAY 40? / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " We must consider that the C Cycle may have ended with the drop into June 23, but we did not get any sort of washout or climax of fear, that is more typical at the end of a C Cycle." Was Thursday's action the beginning of that washout? The cycle status remains uncertain. Either the C cycle ended on June 23 and is retesting that low now, or the selling will accelerate next week. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-06-27 S&P Value: 919 |
| GTSOSC +25 GTSMA -57 10day TRIN 1.30 CYCLE C /DAY 36 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said that the decline we had been expecting was underway and that a sharp drop similar to Oct 2008 might take place. This past week started with a drop of over 3% and it looked like our forecast was about to be realized, but the markets quickly rallied again and by Friday, were unchanged for the week. Our indicators are at neutral levels except that GTSOSC is above GTSMA. We must consider that the C Cycle may have ended with the drop into June 23, but we did not get any sort of washout or climax of fear, that is more typical at the end of a C Cycle. If that is to occur, we should see an immediate resumption of the selling pressure. We remain in Sell Signal mode with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-06-20 S&P Value: 921 |
| GTSOSC -51 GTSMA +24 10day TRIN 1.26 CYCLE C /DAY 31 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we expect the markets to break to the downside and sell off for the rest of June." Our patience with Cycle C was finally rewarded this past week and the decline is underway. We have been drawing paralells with the Cycle C action of last fall (see GTSOSC chart below) and now appear to be at about the equivalent point of 1 Oct 2008, which was just prior to a 20% drop in 6 days. We remain in Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2009-06-13 S&P Value: 946 |
| GTSOSC +73 GTSMA +125 10day TRIN 1.31 CYCLE C /DAY 26 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Our indicators continue to deteriorate,the similarities to last fall are continuing and we expect the markets to break to the downside and sell off for the rest of June. We remain in Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2009-06-07 S&P Value: 940 |
| GTSOSC +133 GTSMA +120 10day TRIN 1.40 CYCLE C /DAY 21 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "it appears that Cycle C will be of extended duration." The downside "break" we expected has obviously not yet occurred but we believe it is imminent. The similarities to last fall are continuing and we now expect the markets to break to the downside and sell off for the rest of June. We continue in Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2009-05-30 S&P Value: 919 |
| GTSOSC +150 GTSMA +88 10day TRIN 1.20 CYCLE C /DAY 16 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we expect the downside influence to accelerate and continue until about Jun 3." But, since the GTSOSC continues to whipsaw around its GTSMA while the markets have travelled sideways since the May 6, B Cycle top, it appears that Cycle C will be of extended duration. This would be another similarity to the C Cycle of last fall which was 29 days long and did over 70% of its 30 % damage to the markets in the last 10 days of the cycle. If the similarities to last fall continue, we would expect the markets to break to the downside and sell off into mid June. We continue in Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2009-05-23 S&P Value: 887 |
| GTSOSC +3 GTSMA +145 10day TRIN 1.35 CYCLE C /DAY 12 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: The born-again bulls could not resist one more attempt to "bargain" hunt in the first half of this week but, by Wednesday , the C Cycle had control once more and we expect the downside influence to accelerate and continue until about Jun 3 We remain in Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2009-05-16 S&P Value: 883 |
| GTSOSC +28 GTSMA +205 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE C /DAY 7 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "a C Cycle down can begin at any moment", and from the opening on Monday it did. The downside pressure continued through the week and we expect Cycle C to last until about Jun 3 We remain in Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2009-05-09 S&P Value: 929 |
| GTSOSC +336 GTSMA +225 10day TRIN .98 CYCLE C /DAY 2 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Back on Mar 21, when we wrote that this was " much stronger than an ordinary B Cycle" and that "a much more sustained rally may show itself by late spring", we fully expected an intervening C Cycle down to precede that spring rally. Instead, the B Cycle has continued for a record setting 51 days. Last week we dubbed it "the moment of truth" and the market promptly showed us that the truth was that the B Cycle was still in progress. At this point we can only state again that all our indicators are overbought and that a C Cycle down can begin at any moment. We are, maintaining Sell Signal mode, with close stops. |
| Date: 2009-05-02 S&P Value: 878 |
| GTSOSC +196 GTSMA +197 10day TRIN 1.32 CYCLE C /DAY 10 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " If, as we believe, Cycle C is truly in progress, a return to declining markets should occur almost immediately." However Cycle C failed again this week to suppress the buyers. This is the "moment of truth." Cycle C has used up 10 trading days and is 8 S&P points higher than when it began. The GTSOSC shows that the bulls are weakening, as it remains overbought, below its moving average(GTSMA) and below the B2 top. We are, maintaining Sell Signal mode, with close stops. Cycle C needs to exert its influence without delay. |
| Date: 2009-04-25 S&P Value: 866 |
| GTSOSC +233 GTSMA +198 10day TRIN 1.19 CYCLE C /DAY 5 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Time is up! Cycle C, should put an end to this rally very soon." That turned out to be the opening on Monday morning, as the S&P500 dropped almost 6% through Monday and into Tuesday morning. The re-born bulls were not daunted , however and spent the remainder of the week buying it all back. br> Once again GTSOSC is whipsawing above its moving average. If, as we believe, Cycle C is truly in progress, a return to declining markets should occur almost immediately. We are, maintaining Sell Signal mode, always with capital protection techniques in these volatile times. |
| Date: 2009-04-18 S&P Value: 870 |
| GTSOSC +313 GTSMA +176 10day TRIN .95 CYCLE B /DAY 38 / avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Time is Up ! Last week we said, "We seem to be repeating the action of last August/September and , if the similarity continues, Cycle C, should put an end to this rally very soon." Cycle B now stands at 38 business days duration. This is exactly equal to the two longest B Cycles since the turn of the century. The first completed on 17 May, 2002, then the C Cycle took the S&P500 down 27% in 45 days. The second completed 28 August, 2008, and the C Cycle took the S&P500 down 30% in 29 days. All of our indicators are in overbought territory, now that 10 day TRIN has joined them, and our Greed/Fear chart (not shown) is at the same Greed level as the January top. We repeat, Time is Up! We are, maintaining Sell Signal mode, always with capital protection techniques in these volatile times. |
| Date: 2009-04-11 S&P Value: 857 |
| GTSOSC +225 GTSMA +118 10day TRIN 1.13 CYCLE C /DAY 4 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: On Tuesday, in a Special Update, we returned to Sell Signal mode and promptly were whipsawed again in pre-holiday trading. GTSOSC is once again above GTSMA, but has not yet gone above the B2 level on our chart. We seem to be repeating the action of last August/September and , if the similarity continues, Cycle C, should put an end to this rally very soon. We are, maintaining Sell Signal mode and expect a return to downside pressure on the markets till near the end of April. |
| Date: 2009-04-07 S&P Value: 816 |
| GTSOSC +37 GTSMA +121 10day TRIN 1.25 CYCLE C /DAY 2 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: On the weekend we wrote "With GTSOSC back above GTSMA we are once again standing aside and in Cover Signal mode and are forced to conclude that Cycle B has extended to a secondary top as did the Cycle B of last August. Cycle C down still awaits and should start very soon." Well Cycle C was confirmed by another significant crossing of GTSMA today. We are, today, returning to Sell Signal mode and expect downside pressure on the markets till near the end of April. |
| Date: 2009-04-04 S&P Value: 842 |
| GTSOSC +229 GTSMA +147 10day TRIN 1.24 CYCLE B /DAY 29 / avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week after we announced our change to Sell Signal mode,we said, " Whatever downside influence Cycle C has to offer should show itself next week. We have respect however, for the powerful increase in breadth during the B Cycle rally and will keep close stops on our positions." Well Cycle C tried to get started with a sharp break on Monday at the open but could not follow through and our stops were triggered on the rally back above 816. With GTSOSC back above GTSMA we are once again standing aside and in Cover Signal mode and are forced to conclude that Cycle B has extended to a secondary top as did the Cycle B of last August. Cycle C down still awaits and should start very soon. We will issue another Update as soon as the top of Cycle B2 becomes clear. |
| Date: 2009-03-28 S&P Value: 816 |
| GTSOSC +100 GTSMA +114 10day TRIN 1.15 CYCLE C /DAY 7 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we still need a significant downside crossing of GTMA by GTSOSC to confirm that Cyle C,down is in progress and will then likely move to Sell Signal mode." Well we did get a downside break yesterday, but its signifigance is borderline so far. However, based on the overbought, extended condition of the markets at the B Cycle top on 18 Mar, we are following through on our plan to go to Sell Signal mode at this time. Whatever downside influence Cycle C has to offer should show itself next week. We have respect however, for the powerful increase in breadth during the B Cycle rally and will keep close stops on our positions. We expect Cycle C to apply downside pressure on the markets until about April 9. |
| Date: 2009-03-21 S&P Value: 768 |
| GTSOSC +124 GTSMA -99 10day TRIN .79 CYCLE C /DAY 2 / avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " we expect an end to this rally very soon." Our target date for the B cycle top had been March 17 and , despite all the excitement about the Feds aggressive "quantitative easing" and the multiple options-futures expiry strategies the top appears to have come only 1 day later than we expected. The numbers it produced , however were much stronger than an ordinary B Cycle. GTSOSC reached +269, which is greater than the last Cycle 5 level. DELTA, which is the difference between GTSOSC and GTSMA reached +463. 10 day TRIN reached .64, the most overbought number in about 20 years. Now it is typical for Bear Markets to have very sharp rallies which end quickly but these unusual numbers may also be evidence that some underlying strength is beginning to re-enter the markets. If so, a much more sustained rally may show itself by late spring. This does not change our expectations for a decline over the next few weeks, however. But,we still need a significant downside crossing of GTSMA by GTSOSC to confirm that Cyle C,down is in progress and will then likely move to Sell Signal mode. Until that crossing we remain in Cover Signal,stand aside mode. If Cycle C is confirmed we would expect downside pressure on the markets until about April 9. |
| Date: 2009-03-14 S&P Value: 768 |
| GTSOSC +8 GTSMA -294 10day TRIN .79 CYCLE B /DAY 14 / avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "We expect that whatever upside power Cycle B has to offer should show itself next week, perhaps in a very sharp rally, aided by short covering." We are satisfied that a 10% rally in four days more than met our expectations. All of our indicators have reached normal topping levels for a B Cycle, so we expect an end to this rally very soon. We remain in Cover Signal, stand aside mode looking to identify a selling opportunity as Cycle C turns the markets back down. |
| Date: 2009-03-07 S&P Value: 683 |
| GTSOSC -421 GTSMA -359 10day TRIN 1.18 CYCLE B /DAY 9 / avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Further selling is possible before Cycle B exerts its upside influence". That selling did continue for the entire week. This was in spite of GTSOSC holding the low point of 24 Feb, which we have labelled as the likely bottom of Cycle A. Although not yet confirmed by an upside break of GTSMA, we believe Cycle B is in progress. As we said last week, it can be a choppy, unreliable cycle so that is why we stand aside in Cover Mode. We expect that whatever upside power Cycle B has to offer should show itself next week, perhaps in a very sharp rally, aided by short covering. We remain on the sidelines expecting the end of Cycle B about Mar 17. |
| Date: 2009-02-28 S&P Value: 735 |
| WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we maintained our Sell Mode,"expecting Cycle A to run for about another week." At the same time we warned that, " one should be alert for the beginning of Cycle B to the upside." The decline in Cycle A continued through Monday, testing the November lows and then the beginning of Cycle B succeeded in turning the market up for a couple of days, but then allowed a sell-off to new lows on Friday. Further selling is possible before Cycle B exerts its upside influence but our expectations for the next few weeks are described in the following quote from our Learn GTSOSC page, "Cycle B... A choppy die-hard attempt by bulls to take the market back towards highs seen at the top of Cycle 5. Sometimes even reaches new highs in price, but not on the GTSOSC, which signals the unsustainable nature of this rally. In general an unreliable cycle on which we cover shorts and stand aside. Duration average 15 bd. " Although confirmation that Cycle B has begun is not yet assured, we have reached oversold levels on GTSOSC and our target date for the end of Cyle A. We are therefore moving to Cover Signal status and will record the $4600 profit since our sell signal of 13 Feb and stand aside. Cycle B is expected to top around Mar 20. |
| Date: 2009-02-21 S&P Value: 770 |
| GTSOSC -398 GTSMA -129 10day TRIN 1.44 CYCLE A /DAY 8 / avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we returned to "Sell Signal mode ..., expecting Cycle A to provide a downtrend until near the end of Feb." The markets immediately proved GTSOSC correct and dropped sharply towards last November's lows. The downside momentum is extended, so one should be alert for the beginning of Cycle B to the upside. . We continue in Sell Mode expecting Cycle A to run for about another week. Prudent stop-loss management of profitable positions is important however. |
| Date: 2009-02-14 S&P Value: 827 |
| GTSOSC -101 GTSMA -53 10day TRIN 1.39 CYCLE A /DAY 4 / avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "An average Cycle 5 would apply upside pressure to the markets until about Feb 17 but it too could be shorter than usual." This proved to be the case, as Cycle 5 completed the next trading day after only 14 days and at an unusually low GTSOSC reading of +84. The sharp break below GTSMA on Tuesday was significant and probably marks the beginning of Cycle A down. We are returning to Sell Signal mode at this time, expecting Cycle A to provide a downtrend until near the end of Feb. The volatility in this period is historic, and traders should be alert for sharp countertrend rallies such as the one on Thursday. |
| Date: 2009-02-07 S&P Value: 869 |
| GTSOSC +76 GTSMA -90 10day TRIN 1.18 CYCLE 5 /DAY 13 / avg 20 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said that although, " we expect the Cycle 4 decline to resume for most of next week. We are late enough in Cycle 4 to be alert for an early change into Cycle 5 , up, so will protect our profits with stops. The decline did abort on Tuesday and stops were triggered at 830. Since GTSOSC broke back above GTSMA as well on that day we were obliged to conclude that Cycle 5 was in progress and thet the previous GTSOSC low (20 Jan) was in fact the bottom of an unusually short Cycle 4. An average Cycle 5 would apply upside pressure to the markets until about Feb 17 but it too could be shorter than usual. We are reluctant to chase the late stages of this rally so will move to Cover Signal mode , waiting to identify a selling opportunity, at the top of Cycle 5. |
| Date: 2009-01-31 S&P Value: 826 |
| GTSOSC -136 GTSMA -126 10day TRIN 1.45 CYCLE 4 /DAY 17/ avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said that , after a " choppy rally" ..." we then expect Cycle 4 to carry the markets down again until about Feb 5." The choppy rally lasted until Wednesday afternoon then the markets reversed and dropped sharply for the remainder of the week. After some possible early month buying next Monday we expect the Cycle 4 decline to resume for most of next week. We are late enough in Cycle 4 to be alert for an early change into Cycle 5 , up, so will protect our profits with stops. We remain in Sell Signal mode , looking to take profits near the end of next week. |
| Date: 2009-01-25 S&P Value: 832 |
| GTSOSC -209 GTSMA -24 10day TRIN 1.74 CYCLE 4 /DAY 12/ avg 23 (see charts below)
WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we initiated a Sell Signal, allowing for a short rally around the inaugeration. The best the markets could do, however was to hold the selloff for the week to 18 points on the S&P 500. With our indicators still a little oversold,we must still allow for some choppy rally here before Cycle 4 applies more downside pressure, but we then expect Cycle 4 to carry the markets down again until about Feb 5. We remain in Sell Signal mode and will look on any rally over the next several days as a selling opportunity. |
| Date: 2009-01-19 S&P Value: 850 |
| GTSOSC -118 GTSMA +117 10day TRIN 1.70 CYCLE 4 /DAY 8/ avg 23 (see charts below)
WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " expect a confirming break of GTSMA within the next week." That break occurred on Monday and Cycle 4,down is in progress. The sharp break has created a short term oversold condition which should work itself off with a short rally during the inauguration euphoria. We then expect Cycle 4 to carry the markets down again until about Feb 5. We are now moving to Sell Signal mode and will look on any rally over the next several days as a selling opportunity. |
| Date: 2009-01-11 S&P Value: 890 |
| GTSOSC +139 GTSMA +145 10day TRIN 1.29 CYCLE 4 /DAY 3/ avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: On Dec 21 we said that Dec 17 , " was probably the end of Cycle 3." ... " We require a confirming downside break through GTSMA however, to be sure that Cycle 4, down is in progress." A significant break did not occur and Cycle 3 carried on to an unusual length of 30 days, until Jan 6. We have now labelled that as the beginning of Cycle 4 and expect a confirming break of GTSMA within the next week. When confirmed , we expect Cycle 4 to apply downside pressure to the markets until about Feb 5. |
| Date: 2008-12-21 S&P Value: 888 |
| GTSOSC +73 GTSMA -38 10day TRIN 1.13 CYCLE 4 / DAY 3/ avg 23 (see charts below)
WEEKEND UPDATE: On Dec 6 we said , "We continue to expect an upward bias to the markets until about December 15." This was in fact the case, as the S&P500
made its top at 919 on Dec 17. GTSOSC reached +112 and TRIN .85 at that time, so that was probably the end of Cycle 3. We require a confirming downside break through GTSMA
however, to be sure that Cycle 4, down is in progress. If so, we expect a downtrend lasting to about Jan 15. We are travelling until early January , with limited computer resources, so cannot provide updated charts until we return. Next update will be at that time. |
| Date: 2008-12-06 S&P Value: 876 |
| GTSOSC -110 GTSMA -394 10day TRIN 1.62 CYCLE 3/ DAY 10/ avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said , "The high momentum of this rally places the market in a rather extended short term position, however, so we decline to chase this rally." The next day's trading emphasized our comments with an 80 point drop in the S&P500. The following day, Cycle 3 restored the market's uptrend, recovering almost half of Monday's drop. We continue to expect an upward bias to the markets until about December 15. We have decided not to trade this volatile rally but will wait for the selling opportunity likely to be presented at the top of Cycle 3. We remain at Cover Signal, stand aside status. |
| Date: 2008-11-29 S&P Value: 896 |
| GTSOSC -63 GTSMA -394 10day TRIN 1.30 CYCLE 3/ DAY 5/ avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said we, "we now expect a rally, which could be sharp." and we moved to cover shorts and stand aside. This was the correct strategy, but we missed a buying opportunity because we thought Cycle 2 had not yet completed. The stong nature of this week's rally is characteristic of a Cycle 3 up, however so we are reverting to our previous analysis that the Cycle 2A bottom occurred on Nov 12 and the final Cycle 2B bottom was on Nov 20. That places us 5 days into Cycle 3 , with the uptrend expected to last until about December 12. The high momentum of this rally places the market in a rather extended short term position, however, so we decline to chase this rally and will remain at Cover Signal, stand aside status. |
| Date: 2008-11-22 S&P Value: 800 |
| GTSOSC -552 GTSMA -381 10day TRIN 1.47 CYCLE 2/ DAY 13/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said we, "declare Cycle 2 in progress with an expected bottom around November 28." and we moved to Sell Signal mode. We thought that we might have completed the first of two expected bottoms last week but the steady selling this week causes us to label Thursday as the Cycle 2A bottom. We now expect a rally, which could be sharp, before another sell-off into a secondary or Cycle 2 B low, around the end of November. We are therefore taking profits on last weekend's Sell Signal and changing to Cover Signal, stand aside mode. |
| Date: 2008-11-15 S&P Value: 873 |
| GTSOSC -424 GTSMA -218 10day TRIN 1.75 CYCLE 2/ DAY 8/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " Our indicators did not reach normal topping levels however, so we would not be surprised to see further attempts to rally before Cycle 2 ,down gets started." Well the first attempt to rally lasted the first 30 mins of Monday's trading and then Cycle 2 took over until mid-day Thursday, when a more convincing attempt to rally ensued. In any event, GTSOSC has now made a significant downside crossing of GTSMA, so we have removed the question mark from our Cycle 1 top and declare Cycle 2 in progress with an expected bottom around November 28. Keep in mind that Cycle 2 typically has two distinct bottom points. (see LEARN GTSOSC page) with an intervening rally. We may very well have made the first bottom on Thursday. We are moving to Sell Signal mode expecting any near term rallies over 920 S&P500 to be selling opportunities. |
| Date: 2008-11-09 S&P Value: 931 |
| GTSOSC -156 GTSMA -282 10day TRIN 1.60 CYCLE 2/ DAY 3/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " The election next week may induce some market volatility but we will be watching for signs that Cycle 1 is coming to an end." Those signs were clearly apparent in the 2 days following the election, as markets had the largest 2 day point drop since 1987. We have labelled the election day top as the completion of Cycle 1, with a question mark. Our indicators did not reach normal topping levels however, so we would not be surprised to see further attempts to rally before Cycle 2 ,down gets started. We remain on the sidelines, in anticipation of the next selling opportunity when our indicators confirm Cycle 2. |
| Date: 2008-11-01 S&P Value: 969 |
| GTSOSC -105 GTSMA -359 10day TRIN 1.51 CYCLE 1/ DAY 16/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Whatever upside potential Cycle 1 has to offer should begin early next week and continue until about November 3." The 1000 point upside burst in the Dow Jones this week puts our forecast right on track. The election next week may induce some market volatility but we will be watching for signs that Cycle 1 is coming to an end. We remain on the sidelines, in anticipation of the next selling opportunity at the top of Cycle 1. |
| Date: 2008-10-25 S&P Value: 877 |
| GTSOSC -494 GTSMA -466 10day TRIN 1.82 CYCLE 1/ DAY 11/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE:On Monday we wrote that the upturn into Cycle 1 was now in place. Despite the slump for the remainder of the week, we continue to believe that is the case. It is important to know the characteristics of each Cycle, however. On our "Learn GTSOSC page you can see, " Cycle 1... Is the first up cycle from a connecting ABC and often has an early pullback to retest the Upward break above the GTSMA." We thought that retest had completed on Oct 14 but obviously a larger pullback was required. Looking at the charts below you can see that , despite this week's volatility, the markets have held above their Oct 10 lows and GTSOSC is well above its low. Whatever upside potential Cycle 1 has to offer should begin early next week and continue until about November 3. We are choosing to sit this cycle out , however, preferring to identify the next selling opportunity at the top of Cycle 1. We remain at Cover Signal, stand aside status. |
| Date: 2008-10-20 S&P Value: 985 |
| GTSOSC -245 GTSMA -457 10day TRIN 1.55 CYCLE 1/ DAY 7/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE:Last weekend we said that, " Friday... might have been the completion of Cycle C. We will wait for more evidence before claiming that the turn up into Cycle 1 has begun." Well that evidence is in place. All our indicators have turned up from oversold levels. GTSOSC has made a significant upward crossing of GTSMA and Cycle 1 ,up is now in progress. We expect upward trending markets until about November 3. We are choosing to sit this cycle out , however, preferring to identify the next selling opportunity at the top of Cycle 1. We remain at Cover Signal, stand aside status. |
| Date: 2008-10-12 S&P Value: 899 |
| GTSOSC -623 GTSMA -373 10day TRIN 1.36 CYCLE 1/ DAY 1/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE:On Monday we moved to Cover Signal status, saying "Today's sell-off and reversal may have completed Cycle C." Well obviously we were a little early :-) However, our indicators are all extremely oversold and we had another sharp down then up reversal day on Friday. Once again, that might have been the completion of Cycle C. We will wait for more evidence before claiming that the turn up into Cycle 1 has begun. For now, we remain at Cover Signal, stand aside status. |
| Date: 2008-10-06 S&P Value: 1057 |
| GTSOSC -377 GTSMA -199 10day TRIN 1.15 CYCLE C/ DAY 26/ avg 18 (see charts below) RESUMPTION UPDATE:When we left on vacation we said, " we continue to expect weakness in the markets until about Sep 25. Look for a climactic low and reversal about that time." We clearly got the weakness as expected, but the extraordinary government intervention over the past couple of weeks has delayed the final climax until now. Today's sell-off and reversal may have completed Cycle C. In any case, with a profit of over $11,000 per E-mini contract, since our sell signal of August 18, we are changing to Cover Signal, stand aside status at this time. |
| Date: 2008-09-12 S&P Value: 1249 |
| GTSOSC -137 GTSMA -49 10day TRIN 1.20 CYCLE C/ DAY 9/ avg 18 (see charts below) SPECIAL UPDATE:We are leaving on vacation and will not be posting further updates until the 2nd week in October. Our indicators continue in Cycle C and we continue to expect weakness in the markets until about Sep 25. Look for a climactic low and reversal about that time as we turn up into Cycle 1. In any case, profits which have been accrued since our Sell Signal of Aug 18 should be protected with prudent money management techniques such as "stop-loss" orders. |
| Date: 2008-09-07 S&P Value: 1242 |
| GTSOSC -99 GTSMA -39 10day TRIN 1.31 CYCLE C/ DAY 5/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE:Last week we allowed a "day or 2" for the Cycle C downtrend to resume. This occurred ,as expected and we have re-labelled the cycle day to make up for the end of summer aberration which delayed the sharp sell-off. We now expect Cycle C to continue pressuring the market to new lows for another week or two. |
| Date: 2008-09-01 S&P Value: 1283 |
| GTSOSC +45 GTSMA -31 10day TRIN 1.21 CYCLE C/ DAY 14/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle C has so far failed to provide the "market trend ...sharply down" we called for last Monday and , in fact our GTSOSC has whipsawed above GTSMA again. This casts doubt on our Sell Signal status but in light of the seasonal and month end crosscurrents we will allow a day or 2 for the downtrend to resume. |
| Date: 2008-08-25 S&P Value: 1267 |
| GTSOSC -136 GTSMA -37 10day TRIN 1.17 CYCLE C/ DAY 10/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said we, "now expect the market trend to be sharply down until about September 5. Then on 18 Aug we sent out an mail alert Sell Signal, as GTSOSC broke GTSMA to the downside. Despite the "fools rally" last Friday, we have not changed that opinion. Cycle C is likely to carry the markets to new lows by about Sep 5. |
| Date: 2008-08-16 S&P Value: 1298 |
| GTSOSC +42 GTSMA +0 10day TRIN .98 CYCLE C/ DAY 4/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we expect a downturn into Cycle C very soon." We think that occurred on Monday and now expect the market trend to be sharply down until about September 5. We will change to Sell Signal status on a significant downside crossing of GTSMA (green line) by GTSOSC (red line). |
| Date: 2008-08-09 S&P Value: 1296 |
| GTSOSC +27 GTSMA -34 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE C/ DAY 2/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: The Cycle B top continues to be elusive as the markets create another ominous rising wedge pattern from early July. Our indicators are at B Cycle topping levels and we expect a downturn into Cycle C very soon. We will change to Sell Signal status on a significant downside crossing of GTSMA (green line) by GTSOSC (red line). |
| Date: 2008-08-02 S&P Value: 1260 |
| GTSOSC -36 GTSMA -92 10day TRIN 1.19 CYCLE C/ DAY 7/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "We still require a significant downside crossing of GTSMA to confirm thatCycle C is in progress and that is likely to happen next week." Well it didn't, so we will have to see if it occurs next week. We will change to Sell Signal status when and if that crossing takes place and will update the charts below on a daily basis so readers can follow the cycle's development. |
| Date: 2008-07-26 S&P Value: 1258 |
| GTSOSC -63 GTSMA -215 10day TRIN 1.07 CYCLE C/ DAY 2/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said we were, " expecting some upside recovery in the markets until about July 24." Well, the peak in the recovery occurred one day short of our target, on July 23. The peak readings on GTSOSC (+24) and 10 day TRIN (1.03) were normal for a B Cycle and the sharp reversal to the downside the next day, is typical of the start of a C Cycle. We still require a significant downside crossing of GTSMA to confirm that Cycle C is in progress and that is likely to happen next week. We will change to Sell Signal status when and if that crossing takes place and will update the charts below on a daily basis so readers can follow the cycle's development. |
| Date: 2008-07-19 S&P Value: 1261 |
| GTSOSC -165 GTSMA -327 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE B/ DAY 9/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: After a retest of the Cycle A bottom into Tuesday, Cycle B took firm hold and rallied the markets for the remainder of the week. We continue in Cover & stand aside Mode, expecting some upside recovery in the markets until about July 24. |
| Date: 2008-07-12 S&P Value: 1239 |
| GTSOSC -332 GTSMA -324 10day TRIN 1.12 CYCLE B/ DAY 4/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: It looks to us that Cycle A completed on Monday at 35 business days duration and -403 on the GTSOSC. If correct, an average duration Cycle B would allow the markets some respite from the selling pressure until about July 24. We continue in Cover & stand aside Mode, expecting some upside recovery in the markets until about July 24. |
| Date: 2008-07-06 S&P Value: 1262 |
| GTSOSC -379 GTSMA -263 10day TRIN 1.09 CYCLE A/ DAY 34/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we encountered some technical problems on our website and were unable to report our analysis to you. We have been unable to confirm that Cycle B is actually in progress, as GTSOSC continues to seek new lows and 10 day TRIN wallows in neutral territory. Since the top of Cycle 5 , on May 15, there have been no significant upside crossings of GTSMA by GTSOSC. Although its duration is unusual, (at 34 days) we have concluded that Cycle A must still be in progress. We continue in Cover& stand aside Mode until the pattern becomes clearer. |
| Date: 2008-07-04 S&P Value: 1265 |
| GTSOSC GTSMA 10day TRIN CYCLE B/ DAY 11/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " Cycle B should try the upside again next week." Well it did try ,until Wednesday and then the bottom fell out on Thursday. We had expected Cycle B to hold the markets up until about July 2 but the question now is, did it top 5 business days early. If so, Thursday's drop would be the beginning of Cycle C down. Our indicators stand at: GTSOSC -330 GTSMA -212 - oversold 10 day TRIN 1.10 -neutral S&P 500.. 1278 We continue in Cover& stand aside Mode and will analyse next week's action to determine the B or C cycle status |
| Date: 2008-06-22 S&P Value: 1318 |
| GTSOSC -228 GTSMA -139 10day TRIN 1.00 CYCLE B/ DAY 6/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: We warned last week that, "we consider B cycles too choppy and undependable to consider trading them on the buy side." The action this week is a good example as Cycle B attempted to rally the markets until Tuesday, 17 Jun and then relapsed sharply to the downside into the Triple Witching option and futures expiry on Friday. We were happy to be standing aside during those whipsaw swings. Cycle B should try the upside again next week. We continue in Cover& stand aside Mode and expect Cycle B to top out about July 2. |
| Date: 2008-06-14 S&P Value: 1340 |
| GTSOSC -133 GTSMA -83 10day TRIN 1.12 CYCLE B/ DAY 1/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Cycle A may carry markets down for a few days more." This was the case, as the selling continued into thursday afternoon where Cycle B appears to have begun. We are thus moving to Cover Signal mode. Although we expect Cycle B to provide upside bias to the markets, we consider B cycles too choppy and undependable to consider trading them on the buy side. (see Learn GTSOSC page) We are in Cover& stand aside Mode and expect an upward bias to the markets until about July 2. |
| Date: 2008-06-07 S&P Value: 1361 |
| GTSOS -98 GTSMA -10 10day TRIN 1.29 CYCLE A/ DAY 15/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we repeated that we, " expect Cycle A to put downward pressure on the stock markets until about 06 June ." Well, despite the whipsaw behavior on Thursday, Cycle A took control on Friday, June 6. The daily TRIN reading of 2.61 yesterday is typical of a final cycle washout day, so we must be alert for an upside reversal that could signal the end of Cycle A. GTSOSC has not yet reached oversold levels, however, and the 10-day average TRIN is only approaching oversold, so Cycle A may carry markets down for a few days more. We remain in Sell Mode for now but will be alert for signs that Cycle B,up is beginning. |
| Date: 2008-05-31 S&P Value: 1399 |
| GTSOSC +43 GTSMA +70 10day TRIN 1.25 CYCLE A/ DAY 10/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: This was a quiet week, as Cycle A took a rest after its sharp drop in the prior week. WE remain in Sell Mode and expect Cycle A to put downward pressure on the stock markets until about 06 June . |
| Date: 2008-05-24 S&P Value: 1376 |
| GTSOSC -57 GTSMA +88 10day TRIN 1.17 CYCLE A/ DAY 6/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "we have a very rare and ominous 47 day Cycle 5, with a rising wedge appearance that normally indicates a sharp drop from near its apex." After a blowoff morning on Monday, the sharp drop began and took the S&P 500 down 65 points by the end of the week. Cycle A down, is truly in progress. WE remain in Sell Mode and expect Cycle A to put downward pressure on the stock markets until about 06 June . |
| Date: 2008-05-17 S&P Value: 1425 |
| GTSOSC +186 GTSMA +124 10day TRIN 1.08 CYCLE A/ DAY 1/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Our patience has been sorely tried, with 2 whipsaw breaks of GTSMA, leading us to believe that Cycle A was underway. It is important to keep in mind, however the "characteristics" of Cycle 5 as described on our LEARN GTSOSC page " Last main up cycle of each pattern. A good cycle to get out of longer term positions. Often choppy near the top. Often gives way to a nasty sell off in Cycle A. Duration average 18 business days." In this case we have a very rare and ominous 47 day Cycle 5, with a rising wedge appearance that normally indicates a sharp drop from near its apex. WE remain in Sell Mode and expect Cycle A to put downward pressure on the stock markets until about 06 June . |
| Date: 2008-05-11 S&P Value: 1388 |
| GTSOSC +35 GTSMA +103 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE A/ DAY 5/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said Cycle 5's completion was"imminent." Cycle A,down did begin right at that point and it was confirmed on Wednesday , with a significant break of GTSMA(green Line) by GTSOSC (red line). WE remain in Sell Mode and expect Cycle A to put downward pressure on the stock markets until about 23 May. |
| Date: 2008-05-03 S&P Value: 1414 |
| GTSOSC +162 GTSMA +91 10day TRIN 1.02 CYCLE 5/ DAY 38/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "We expect completion of (Cycle 5's) top within a few days. The Fed's additional interest rate cut on Wednesday seems to have delayed that result a little longer. Now at 38 days, this Cycle 5 is the longest we have seen in ten years. A look at the pattern of the previous Cycle 5 in the GTSOSC (red line) from early October, 2007, in the second chart below, will reveal its similarity to the current one. We expect a similar nasty A-B-C pattern to follow its imminent completion. |
| Date: 2008-04-26 S&P Value: 1398 |
| GTSOSC +137 GTSMA +27 10day TRIN .94 CYCLE 5/ DAY 33/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said we would continue to " look for short positioning.... Cycle 5 is far beyond its average duration and a turndown into Cycle A is expected shortly." The market went sideways this week, with GTSOSC making a slight new high. GTSMA has turned down , however and 10 day TRIN is finally overbought. Cycle 5 has run this long only twice previously in the last 10 years. We expect completion of its top within a few days. |
| Date: 2008-04-19 S&P Value: 1390 |
| GTSOSC +130 GTSMA +41 10day TRIN 1.15 CYCLE 5/ DAY 28/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said " Neither of our indicators reached normal overbought levels, so this may indicate another rally attempt before Cycle A down, really takes hold." That rally started Tuesday and persisted into Friday's close. The strength of that rally took GTSOSC above the previous peak which we had labeled the top of Cycle 5, so we have moved that label to yesterdays' high. This whipsaw action calls into question our Sell Signal from last week but as we said last weekend, "We will look for a short term rally for short positioning." We will continue that process next week. Cycle 5 is far beyond its average duration and a turndown into Cycle A is expected shortly. |
| Date: 2008-04-13 S&P Value: 1333 |
| GTSOSC -66 GTSMA +18 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE A/ DAY 4/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "Cycle 5 will likely complete its topping action within the next week." This occurred at mid-day on Monday , Apr 7. Neither of our indicators reached normal overbought levels, so this may indicate another rally attempt before Cycle A down, really takes hold. Friday's downward crossing of GTSMA by GTSOSC was significant however,so we are moving to Sell Signal at this time. We will look for a short term rally for short positioning. An average length Cycle A, of 15 business days, would apply downward pressure to the markets until about April 25. |
| Date: 2008-04-06 S&P Value: 1370 |
| GTSOSC +114 GTSMA -49 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE 5/ DAY 18/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "We expect an upswing over the next week will carry us to more typical topping levels." The upswing arrived quickly and then the market held on to its gains for the rest of the week. Our indicators have a little futher to go but Cycle 5 will likely complete its topping action within the next week. We remain at Cover Signal, stand aside status for now, and are satisfied to wait for a sell signal opportunity when the top of Cycle 5 is identified. |
| Date: 2008-03-29 S&P Value: 1315 |
| GTSOSC -142 GTSMA -187 10day TRIN 1.34 CYCLE 5/ DAY 13/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said we were, "looking for uptrending markets until about 31 March." Well the markets tried to follow our prediction until Tuesday afternoon and then relapsed for the remainder of the week. With our GTSOSC and TRIN indicators having reached no better than neutral levels, we doubt that Cycle 5 has ended. We expect an upswing over the next week will carry us to more typical topping levels. We remain at Cover Signal, stand aside status for now, and are satisfied to wait for a sell signal opportunity when the top of Cycle 5 is identified. |
| Date: 2008-03-22 S&P Value: 1330 |
| GTSOSC -163 GTSMA -260 10day TRIN 1.17 CYCLE 5/ DAY 8/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we called the beginning of Cycle 5, as likely March 10. We needed an upside break of GTSMA By GTSOSC to confirm that judgement and that happened on Tues, Mar 18. Despite the wild swings of this week, we are looking for uptrending markets until about 31 March We have decided to forego a buy signal for this Cycle 5 and prefer to wait a couple of weeks to identify a sell signal for Cycle A down. We remain at Cover Signal status for now. |
| Date: 2008-03-15 S&P Value: 1288 |
| GTSOSC -316 GTSMA -178 10day TRIN 1.29 CYCLE 5/ DAY 4/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "our indicators have reached levels consistent with a possible end to Cycle 4." Well it looks to us as if that completion occurred on Monday afternoon and Cycle 5, up is now in progress. It's had a shaky start however and we need an upside break of GTSMA by GTSOSC to confirm the cycle. If that happens, we will be looking for uptrending markets until about 31 March We remain at Cover Signal status for now. |
| Date: 2008-03-09 S&P Value: 1293 |
| GTSOSC -290 GTSMA -37 10day TRIN 1.24 CYCLE 4/ DAY 24/ avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Cycle 4 likely has some further downside action to come next week," but "is likely within a week of completion." We got the further downside and our indicators have reached levels consistent with a possible end to Cycle 4. We moved to Cover Signal mode last week and will now stand aside until the top of Cycle 5 can be identified, likely near the end of March. |
| Date: 2008-03-01 S&P Value: 1331 |
| GTSOSC -102 GTSMA +31 10day TRIN 1.09 CYCLE 4/ DAY 19/ avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, we expected the Cycle 4 "downtrend to resume." The choppiness continued for another three days however, before a drop on Thursday and a collapse on Friday. Our indicators have not reached oversold, so Cycle 4 likely has some further downside action to come next week. This cycle has been a wild ride, however and is likely within a week of completion so we have decided to move to Cover Signal mode and lock-in our $900 profit. We will now stand aside until the top of Cycle 5 can be identified, likely near the end of March. |
| Date: 2008-02-23 S&P Value: 1353 |
| GTSOSC +15 GTSMA -9 10day TRIN .94 CYCLE 4/ DAY 14/ avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Cycle 4 is now confirmed in progress and we are in Sell Signal mode." The S&P 500 must have been confused by our call, because it proceeded to swing 40 points up and down 5 times in four trading days only to finish the week with a net change of 4 points. This week emphasises our description of Cycle 4's as "complex and choppy" (see Learn GTSOSC page). Perhaps now that 10 day TRIN has finally reached the overbought area, Cycle 4 will see fit to allow the downtrend, begun in early February, to resume. We continue to expect downtrending markets until about Mar 5. |
| Date: 2008-02-16 S&P Value: 1350 |
| GTSOSC -61 GTSMA +26 10day TRIN 1.23 CYCLE 4/ DAY 10/ avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "The most likely scenario for next week is a rally attempt that fails within a few days, and gives way to a break of GTSMA which will only then prompt us to change to Sell Signal mode." A review of the S&P 500 charts for this past week will show that our analysis was right on. Cycle 4 is now confirmed in progress and we are in Sell Signal mode. We expect downtrending markets until about Mar 5. |
| Date: 2008-02-09 S&P Value: 1331 |
| GTSOSC -31 GTSMA -27 10day TRIN 1.22 CYCLE 4/ DAY 5/ avg 23 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, the Cycle 3..." top is likely to occur within the next 6 business days." We didn't have long to wait, as the market fell sharply on Tuesday and the decline continued into Thursday morning. Cycle 3 is likely complete and Cycle 4 down has likely begun. We place a question mark beside the Cycle 3 top on our charts only because our 10 day TRIN did not reach overbought levels and a confirming break by GTSOSC below GTSMA has not yet occured. The most likely scenario for next week is a rally attempt that fails within a few days, and gives way to a break of GTSMA which will only then prompt us to change to Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2008-02-02 S&P Value: 1395 |
| GTSOSC +212 GTSMA -154 10day TRIN 1.00 CYCLE 3/ DAY 10/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle 3. is progressing characteristically, (see Learn GTSOSC) and our indicators are rapidly approaching levels expected for the top of this cycle. That top is likely to occur within the next 6 business days. We continue in "stand aside" mode watching for the top of Cycle 3 to look for our next Sell Signal opportunity. |
| Date: 2008-01-26 S&P Value: 1331 |
| GTSOSC -213 GTSMA -256 10day TRIN 1.54 CYCLE 3/ DAY 5/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said , " We expect soon, to see a confirmed upturn into Cycle 3." This occurred on Wednesday with GTSOSC rising significantly above GTSMA. The actual low closing GTSOSC reading for Cycle 2 was on Jan 17 so we are 5 trading days into Cycle 3 and its normal duration would provide upside support for the markets until about Feb 11. Cycle 3's can provide strong rallies but can also be much shorter than their 17 day average. The current fragile confidence of the markets prompts us to maintain our "stand aside position" and we will wait for the top of Cycle 3 to look for our next Sell Signal opportunity. |
| Date: 2008-01-19 S&P Value: 1325 |
| GTSOSC -330 GTSMA -233 10day TRIN 1.53 CYCLE 3/ DAY 1/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said , " we expect an upside break of GTSMA by GTSOSC to give confirmation this week, that Cycle 3 is truly underway." Well, the markets withheld that confirmation and quickly succumbed to a resumption of Cycle 2; thus keeping us in Cover Signal, stand aside mode. Our indicators remain oversold and Cycle 2 has now lasted 9 days longer than average. We expect soon, to see a confirmed upturn into Cycle 3. |
| Date: 2008-01-12 S&P Value: 1401 |
| GTSOSC -214 GTSMA -127 10day TRIN 1.76 CYCLE 3/ DAY 3/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said we, " will now look for a sharp reversal to the upside in Cycle 3." This occurred Wednesday afternoon. Our indicators remain oversold and we expect and upside break of GTSMA by GTSOSC to give confirmation this week, that Cycle 3 is truly underway. A normal length Cycle 3 would maintain upward pressure on the markets until the end of January. |
| Date: 2008-01-05 S&P Value: 1412 |
| GTSOSC -247 GTSMA -94 10day TRIN 1.68 CYCLE 2/ DAY 17/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: That's more like it! We expected Cycle 2 selling to "dominate" the early New Year and this week didn't disappoint. All indicators have reached oversold levels and Cycle 2 has reached its average duration for completion. Although the selling may last a few days more, we are moving to Cover Signal, stand aside mode and will now look for a sharp reversal to the upside in Cycle 3. |
| Date: 2007-12-31 S&P Value: 1478 |
| GTSOSC -47 GTSMA -66 10day TRIN 1.12 CYCLE 2/ DAY 13/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Our analysis remains unchanged from last week, the mid cycle rally did "peter out over Xmas" and the second downleg of cycle 2 is "dominating into the early New Year." We see no signs of a bottom and are maintaining Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2007-12-22 S&P Value: 1484 |
| GTSOSC -28 GTSMA -26 10day TRIN 1.09 CYCLE 2/ DAY 9/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we pointed out that, " Cycle 2 typically displays two separate bottoms." It looks like the first (2A) came on Monday, Dec 17. We expect the rally, since then, will peter out over Xmas and the second downleg of cycle 2 will dominate into the early New Year. We are maintaining Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2007-12-15 S&P Value: 1468 |
| GTSOSC -142 GTSMA +12 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE 2/ DAY 4/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we called for a turn down into Cycle 2 near the end of this week. Well the drop came sharply, a couple of days early and coincided with the Fed's interest rate announcement. Allowing for a possible day or two bounce to work off the short term oversold, Cycle 2 should exert downside pressure on the markets until year end. We should note that Cycle 2 typically displays two separate bottoms. (see Learn GTSOSC page). We are thus returning to Sell Signal mode. |
| Date: 2007-12-08 S&P Value: 1505 |
| GTSOSC +139 GTSMA -94 10day TRIN .96 CYCLE 1/ DAY 11/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Our indicators are all falling into place for the expected completion of Cycle 1. GTSOSC momentum and 10 day TRIN figures are overbought and, a normal length Cycle 1 would top near the end of next week. We expect a turn down into Cycle 2 around that time. |
| Date: 2007-12-01 S&P Value: 1481 |
| GTSOSC +17 GTSMA -203 10day TRIN 1.05 CYCLE 1/ DAY 6/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week in moving to a,Cover Signal status, we said that " Cycle 1, up" had likely started but that " a relapse is possible and a retest of the lows is common in the early stages of Cycle 1." This is exactly what happened, as the C cycle, S&P 500 lows were taken out on Monday and quickly reversed to the upside on Tuesday, in a successful retest. The sharp break up through GTSMA confirms that Cycle 1 is underway. We have used 6 of the average 17 business days of Cycle 1 and, with GTSOSC 220 points above GTSMA (overbought), are not interested in the upside potential left in this cycle. Instead we will wait for the onset of Cycle 2 down, expected about Dec 17 to assess further selling opportunities. |
| Date: 2007-11-24 S&P Value: 1441 |
| GTSOSC -205 GTSMA -245 10day TRIN 1.02 CYCLE 1/ DAY 1/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week were looking for a "washout decline to complete Cycle C." It is possible that this occured on Wednesday morning with GTSOSC near -400 and daily TRIN peaking at about 2.5. If so Cycle 1, up began at that time. Trading around holidays is always somewhat thin , however, so a relapse is possible and a retest of the lows is common in the early stages of Cycle 1. We are changing our signal status to Cover Signal at this time and will watch the next few trading days to see if Cycle 1 is in fact, in progress. |
| Date: 2007-11-17 S&P Value: 1459 |
| GTSOSC -225 GTSMA -177 10day TRIN .93 CYCLE C/ DAY 12/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "There is still no sign of capitulation" and, this week, the indicators are even more bearish as, on Tuesday, the markets staged a short-lived dead-cat bounce which failed and returned them to the same levels as they began the week. This brought TRIN to overbought and sets the stage for a washout decline to complete Cycle C. We continue to expect falling markets for next week. |
| Date: 2007-11-10 S&P Value: 1454 |
| GTSOSC -287 GTSMA -116 10day TRIN 1.17 CYCLE C/ DAY 7/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "we may see a couple of days of bounce, but Cycle C appears to be anxious to exert its bearish power." Well we got exactly 2 days of bounce, then Cycle C grabbed the markets by the throat and dragged them down 4 % in the remainder of the week. There is still no sign of capitulation however, and we feel that we will see GTSOSC numbers around -400 and a daily TRIN figure in excess of 2.00 before Cycle C completes its selling pressure. |
| Date: 2007-11-03 S&P Value: 1510 |
| GTSOSC -73 GTSMA -82 10day TRIN 1.10 CYCLE C/ DAY 2/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Cycle B should now provide a choppy attempt to revisit the market highs, but should give way to a powerful down Cycle C by about 13 Nov ." This is what happened Monday through Wednesday of this week, completing with a down and up whipsaw right after the Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The sharp drop thereafter makes it likely that Cycle B topped on Wed about a week earlier than expected. If Cycle B has a little more upside influence remaining, we may see a couple of days of bounce, but Cycle C appears to be anxious to exert its bearish power. Once it has begun, we expect downtrending markets until about Thanksgiving. |
| Date: 2007-10-27 S&P Value: 1535 |
| GTSOSC -41 GTSMA -37 10day TRIN 1.26 CYCLE B/ DAY 2/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: We expected downside pressure from Cycle A until about Oct 30 but it looks like the cycle completed mid-morning on Wed, Oct 24, about 4 bus. days early. Cycle B should now provide a choppy attempt to revisit the market highs, but should give way to a powerful down Cycle C by about 13 Nov . Now Here: Greg's Blog. (Click Blog link at top of page.) |
| Date: 2007-10-20 S&P Value: 1501 |
| GTSOSC -209 GTSMA +63 10day TRIN 1.33 CYCLE A/ DAY 8/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we labelled Oct 11 as the market top. We said, "We expect downside acceleration immediately ahead, with the decline continuing until about the end of October." The markets clearly met our expectations as they declined all week and plunged 4% on Friday, Oct 19 in a fitting tribute to the 20th anniversary of the 1987, "Black Monday" crash. Cycle A should provide further downside pressure until about Oct 30. |
| Date: 2007-10-13 S&P Value: 1562 |
| GTSOSC +136 GTSMA +141 10day TRIN .97 CYCLE A/ DAY 1/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "We now expect Cycle 5 to complete within a week and Cycle A to then take the markets sharply lower." We think that completion ocurred at the sharp downside reversal around mid-day Thursday, Oct 11. We expect downside acceleration immediately ahead, with the decline continuing until about the end of October. Now Here: Greg's Blog. (Click Blog link at top of page.) |
| Date: 2007-10-06 S&P Value: 1558 |
| GTSOSC +203 GTSMA +139 10day TRIN 1.00 CYCLE 5/ DAY 14/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: We have come to the conclusion that Cycle 3 ended, as we originally thought, at the beginning of September. Cycle 4 then began normally, putting downward pressure on the markets until Sep 18, when the Fed lowered its interest rates sharply. This action brought Cycle 4 to an abrupt end. Since that time the GTSOSC has indicated that it is in Cycle 5 up. This cycle normally runs about 18 business days (14 used so far) and is followed by an important breakdown in Cycle A. We now expect Cycle 5 to complete within a week and Cycle A to then take the markets sharply lower. Now Here: Greg's Blog. (Click Blog link at top of page.) |
| Date: 2007-09-29 S&P Value: 1526 |
| GTSOSC +119 GTSMA +97 10day TRIN .95 CYCLE 4/ DAY 7/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: No change from last week. We are still waiting for GTSOSC to break significantly below GTSMA to confirm that Cycle 4 is underway. We then expect a downward trend in the markets until about October 23. Now Here: Greg's Blog. (Click Blog link at top of page.) |
| Date: 2007-09-22 S&P Value: 1526 |
| GTSOSC +169 GTSMA +59 10day TRIN .83 CYCLE 4/ DAY 2/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: The "extra upside" potential, we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, was given a boost by the Fed this week and thus Cycle 4 has been delayed a little. Trin figures are now overbought and GTSOSC has approached overbought so we continue to expect a downturn into Cycle 4 which should carry until about October 23. Now Here: Greg's Blog. (Click Blog link at top of page.) |
| Date: 2007-09-15 S&P Value: 1484 |
| GTSOSC +74 GTSMA +26 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE 4/ DAY 8/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " we can't rule out another attempt to squeeze a little more upside out of Cycle 3." That occurred this week in quiet trading. We also expected Cycle 4 to " be well established" by this point and that has yet to happen. We expect a downturn next week and a breakdown below GTSMA to confirm that Cycle 4 is in progress. We remain in Sell mode, with this cycle expected to last until about October 5. Now Here: Greg's Blog. (Click Blog link at top of page.) |
| Date: 2007-09-08 S&P Value: 1454 |
| GTSOSC -33 GTSMA +16 10day TRIN 1.26 CYCLE 4/ DAY 3/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "We expect next week to finish off Cycle 3 with a bullish burst, followed by a turn down into Cycle 4." Well the bullish burst came quickly, as the markets rose from the opening on Tuesday to reach their highest point since Aug 9, by late afternoon. The turn down, into Cycle 4 followed immediately and by Friday's close, a 33 point break below GTSMA confirmed that Cycle 4 has likely begun. GTSOSC peaked out at a feeble +167 on Tuesday, however and the short term TRIN figures are oversold, so we can't rule out another attempt to squeeze a little more upside out of Cycle 3. In any event, Cycle 4, down should be well established by our next report. We remain in Sell mode, with this cycle expected to last until about October 5. Coming Soon: The GTSOSC Blog. |
| Date: 2007-09-01 S&P Value: 1474 |
| GTSOSC +99 GTSMA -99 10day TRIN 1.11 CYCLE 3/ DAY 12/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: We have retested the upside break of GTSMA and turned up again. We expect next week to finish off Cycle 3 with a bullish burst, followed by a turn down into Cycle 4 by about 12 Sep. We remain in Sell mode. Coming Soon: The GTSOSC Blog. |
| Date: 2007-08-25 S&P Value: 1479 |
| GTSOSC +92 GTSMA -190 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE 3/ DAY 7/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last update we thought that Cycle 3 had begun on Aug 6, but it relapsed into the true Cycle 2B bottom on Aug 15. From there we have had another strong upside break of GTSMA and CYCLE 3 is in progress. As we stated in our Aug 12 report, we are holding to the sell side, expecting the upside momentum to break down into Cycle 4, likely by the second week of September. |
| Date: 2007-08-12 S&P Value: 1454 |
| GTSOSC -248 GTSMA -302 10day TRIN 1.19 CYCLE 3/ DAY 5/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, " we continue to expect the 2B bottom on or about Aug 7." The bottom came on the morning of Aug 6, and reversed strongly upwards in Cycle 3. The upturn was confirmed on Aug 8 by an upward break through GTSMA from oversold levels in both GTSOSC and 10-day TRIN. We would normally be tempted to suggest the buy side during a Cycle 3, but we have already used up 5 days, with little progress and Cycle 3 moves tend to be short and sharp. (see Learn GTSOSC page) Instead we will look for another downturn in Cycle 4 , after Cycle 3 has exhausted the short term bullish potential, likely before the end of August. |
| Date: 2007-08-04 S&P Value: 1433 |
| GTSOSC -374 GTSMA -228 10day TRIN 1.50 CYCLE 2/ DAY 15/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "A typical characteristic of Cycle 2 is to produce a double bottom with an intervening bounce back towards the GTSMA. The initial bottom should occur soon with a more important bottom around Aug 7." The initial bottom did, in fact, occur on the following trading day, and is labelled 2A on the chart. The decline resumed yesterday and we continue to expect the 2B bottom on or about Aug 7. |
| Date: 2007-07-29 S&P Value: 1459 |
| GTSOSC -411 GTSMA -56 10day TRIN 1.28 CYCLE 2/ DAY 10/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Cycle 2 is now expected to exert downward pressure on the markets until about August 7. ." The initial downward pressure has been intense and has already produced oversold levels on GTSOSC with TRIN figures not far behind. A typical characteristic of Cycle 2 is to produce a double bottom with an intervening bounce back towards the GTSMA. The initial bottom should occur soon with a more important bottom around Aug 7. |
| Date: 2007-07-21 S&P Value: 1534 |
| GTSOSC -84 GTSMA +99 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE 2/ DAY 5/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last update we said, that we expected the top of Cycle 1 to be complete within a week. This was exactly what happened as Cycle 2 began on July 16th. The TRIN indicator reached a very overbought .86 on that day while the S&P 500 reached its highest point. The GTSOSC put in a very weak showing , however, as it was unable to reach normal overbought levels. Another important development, removal of the short-sale uptick requirement (in place since 1938), occurred at the time of our last update and quickly showed its signifigance to our "Greed/Fear" indicator. We are including a chart of this indicator below. Is it just co-incidence that this large block trade ratio plunged, immediately following this change in the rules? We think not ! Cycle 2 is now expected to exert downward pressure on the markets until about August 7. |
| Date: 2007-07-09 S&P Value: 1530 |
| GTSOSC +178 GTSMA +83 10day TRIN 1.04 CYCLE 1/ DAY 17/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last update we called for, "a reversal to the upside into Cycle 1 within a week or so." This week's action confirmed that Cycle C ended on June 12 and June 27 's washout low was a retest of that bottom. This means that Cycle 1 has been in progress since June 12 but has yet to breach the Cycle B high. GTSOSC will likely reach 280 and 10 day TRIN fall below 1.00 before a top is in, but this should not take more than a week. We expect a top to be reached and a downturn into Cycle 2 very soon. |
| Date: 2007-06-30 S&P Value: 1503 |
| GTSOSC +33 GTSMA +64 10day TRIN 1.10 CYCLE C/ DAY 20/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last update we said, " Although Cycle C could be complete, we feel another washout is more likely." A further drop did occur early this week, with the lows for this cycle, so far, accompanied by a large TRIN number (2.83) at the opening on Wednesday. This may have been the completion of Cycle C but we have no confirmation of that, as oversold GTSOSC levels were not reached and no upside crossing of GTSMA has occurred. We have , however, reached our target date for the completion of Cycle C so the market is wobbling at a decision point. A further, sharp decline is still possible near term, but that should be followed by a reversal to the upside into Cycle 1 within a week or so. |
| Date: 2007-06-24 S&P Value: 1501 |
| GTSOSC +33 GTSMA +50 10day TRIN .91 CYCLE C/ DAY 15/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last update we said, "We expect the markets to turn down next week and remain under pressure until about June 29." These comments were followed by a sharp decline over the next week and a turnaround to retest the highs. Our indicators did not reach oversold levels on the initial decline, and remain overbought at this time. Although Cycle C could be complete, we feel another washout is more likely and it may have begun on Friday. We will watch for a large daily Trin number (in excess of 2.00) to signal the kind of increase in bearishness required to set up a true reversal into Cycle 1, up. |
| Date: 2007-06-02 S&P Value: 1536 |
| GTSOSC +279 GTSMA +162 10day TRIN .90 CYCLE B/ DAY 15/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: All our indicators are overbought and Cycle B has reached its average duration. This is in line with our comments last week and the stage is set for the beginning of a decline in Cycle C. We expect the markets to turn down next week and remain under pressure until about June 29. |
| Date: 2007-06-02 S&P Value: 1536 |
| GTSOSC +279 GTSMA +162 10day TRIN .90 CYCLE B/ DAY 15/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: All our indicators are overbought and Cycle B has reached its average duration. This is in line with our comments last week and the stage is set for the beginning of a decline in Cycle C. We expect the markets to turn down next week and remain under pressure until about June 29. |
| Date: 2007-05-26 S&P Value: 1516 |
| GTSOSC +138 GTSMA +143 10day TRIN .81 CYCLE B/ DAY 11/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle B showed classic behavior this week as is described on our LEARN GTSOSC page, "A choppy die-hard attempt by bulls to take the market back towards highs seen at the top of Cycle 5. Sometimes even reaches new highs in price, but not on the GTSOSC, which signals the unsustainable nature of this rally." This can easily be seen on our GTSOSC chart below. We continue to expect the current bullish sentiment to exhaust itself by May 31 . This should be followed by an important decline in Cycle C. |
| Date: 2007-05-19 S&P Value: 1523 |
| GTSOSC +145 GTSMA +183 10day TRIN .94 CYCLE B/ DAY 6/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said it was likely that Cycle B had begun, and that we would expect about 2 weeks of further attempts to rally the markets to new highs. This week conformed to that pattern. We expect the current bullish sentiment to exhaust itself by May 31 . This should be followed by an important decline in Cycle C. |
| Date: 2007-05-12 S&P Value: 1506 |
| GTSOSC +194 GTSMA +217 10day TRIN 1.05 CYCLE B/ DAY 1/ avg 14 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said Cycle A is " Sometimes a little choppy at the beginning as late-comer bulls attempt to buy the first pull-backs. Once this trend is established, however, can produce sharp and deep sell-off. " Well it did manage a "sharp" sell-off on Thursday but that may be all Cycle A has to offer. The 240 daily reading on TRIN that day is typical of a washout completion to a decline. The upside reversal on Friday adds weight to that interpretation. If Cycle B has begun, we would expect about 2 weeks of further attempts to rally the markets to new highs. We expect the current bullish sentiment to exhaust itself by about May 31 . This should be followed by an important decline in Cycle C. |
| Date: 2007-05-05 S&P Value: 1506 |
| GTSOSC +260 GTSMA +236 10day TRIN .96 CYCLE A/ DAY 14/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Today's update can only repeat our comments from last week. "Despite a clear top and Sell Signal pattern in GTSOSC,and persistent overbought levels of 10 day TRIN, the markets continued to work higher this week. The following quote from our LEARN GTSOSC page may clarify this contradictory behavior. Cycle A is " Sometimes a little choppy at the beginning as late-comer bulls attempt to buy the first pull-backs. Once this trend is established, however, can produce sharp and deep sell-off. " We continue to expect declining markets until at least May 15. |
| Date: 2007-04-28 S&P Value: 1494 |
| GTSOSC +203 GTSMA +264 10day TRIN .89 CYCLE A/ DAY 9/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Despite a clear top and Sell Signal pattern in GTSOSC,and persistent overbought levels of 10 day TRIN, the markets continued to work higher this week. The following quote from our LEARN GTSOSC page may clarify this contradictory behavior. Cycle A is " Sometimes a little choppy at the beginning as late-comer bulls attempt to buy the first pull-backs. Once this trend is established, however, can produce sharp and deep sell-off. " We continue to expect declining markets until about May 15. |
| Date: 2007-04-21 S&P Value: 1485 |
| GTSOSC +294 GTSMA +274 10day TRIN .84 CYCLE A/ DAY 4/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said "we expect a downturn into Cycle A very soon." We believe Cycle 5 topped on Monday, April 16, with a GTSOSC break of GTSMA providing confirmation on the 19th. The markets however, insisted on a blow-off on Friday to put a cherry on top of the Sundae that was Cycle 5. The downward pressure of Cycle A should quickly become apparent next week. We expect declining markets until about May 15. |
| Date: 2007-04-14 S&P Value: 1453 |
| GTSOSC +284 GTSMA +233 10day TRIN .95 CYCLE 5/ DAY 28/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "If Cycle A started from the Mar 22 high, a break to the downside should occur immediately, and the downtrend should persist for at least a week." Since this did not happen, we must come to the conclusion that Cycle 5 remained in force at least until yesterday. It is now 10 business days longer than average, however, and our indicators are all at or above normal topping levels, so we expect a downturn into Cycle A very soon. |
| Date: 2007-04-07 S&P Value: 1444 |
| GTSOSC +277 GTSMA +231 10day TRIN 1.09 CYCLE A/ DAY 11/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said, "Cycle 5 might just suck in some 'April Fools' for one last short rally." This past week witnessed that rally and next week will determine if it was, in fact, just an April Fools joke. If Cycle A started from the Mar 22 high, a break to the downside should occur immediately, and the downtrend should persist for at least a week. |
| Date: 2007-04-01 S&P Value: 1421 |
| GTSOSC +191 GTSMA +173 10day TRIN 1.04 CYCLE A/ DAY 7/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we mentioned that Cycle 5 might be complete and we have no reason, at this point, to change that opinion. The only confirmation still required is a significant break below GTSMA (green) by GTSOSC (red). Until then, Cycle 5 might just suck in some "April Fools" for one last short rally. If Cycle A has in fact started from the Mar 22 high, acceleration to the downside should occur very soon and the downtrend should persist until about mid April. |
| Date: 2007-03-24 S&P Value: 1436 |
| GTSOSC +266 GTSMA +28 10day TRIN 1.18 CYCLE 5/ DAY 14/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle 5 has used up most of its time and we are rapidly approaching overbought levels on all indicators. If it is not already the case, we expect this topping action to be complete by about 28 March, followed by a sharp downturn into Cycle A. This should provide the further selling opportunity we described last week. |
| Date: 2007-03-18 S&P Value: 1398 |
| GTSOSC +35 GTSMA -187 10day TRIN 1.34 CYCLE 5/ DAY 9/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: This week confirmed our comments from last weekend that Cycle 5 had started, as GTSOSC rose strongly above GTSMA. We continue to expect the markets to be supported by this up cycle until about 28 March, but we are not interested in participating on the buy side here and rather will look for a further selling opportunity, in preparation for major downswings expected in Cycles A and C as summer approaches. |
| Date: 2007-03-11 S&P Value: 1403 |
| GTSOSC -187 GTSMA -137 10day TRIN 1.47 CYCLE 5/ DAY 4/ avg 18 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "Cycle 4 may have a little damage to do yet." That damage showed up on Monday , Mar 5 , as Cycle 4 completed with a very oversold GTSOSC number of -480 and a daily TRIN of 2.27. Cycle 5 appears to have started from that low and should support the markets until about 28 March. We are not interested in participating on the buy side, during this expected bounce back but rather will look for a further selling opportunity, in preparation for major downswings expected in Cycles A and C as summer approaches. |
| Date: 2007-03-04 S&P Value: 1387 |
| GTSOSC -350 GTSMA +76 10day TRIN 2.56 CYCLE 4/ DAY 20/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last few updates we have been calling for declining markets in Cycle 4 until about Feb 28. This past week certainly caught up with those expectations, with a drop of 75 points on the S&P 500 and about 600 points in the DJ Industrials. The low on Thursday morning may have ended Cycle 4, right on our expected time target, as GTSOSC and TRIN numbers have reached very oversold levels. GTSMA is still in positive territory, however, and " Greed " is still mixed with the "Fear" evident in large block transactions, indicating Cycle 4 may have a little damage to do yet, as it approaches its 24 day average duration on Mar 8. |
| Date: 2007-02-17 S&P Value: 1456 |
| GTSOSC +246 GTSMA +251 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE 4/ DAY 11/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: We continue to believe that Cycle 4 ,down, began last Friday, Feb 9. After re-testing the highs this past week, we expect the markets to now resume their decline until about Feb 28. |
| Date: 2007-02-12 S&P Value: 1438 |
| GTSOSC +172 GTSMA +236 10day TRIN 1.08 CYCLE 4/ DAY 6/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we were waiting for, "GTSOSC to break below GTSMA to confirm that Cycle 4 ,down, has begun." This occured on Friday, generating another Sell Signal. We now expect declining markets until about Feb 28." |
| Date: 2007-01-27 S&P Value: 1422 |
| GTSOSC +143 GTSMA +142 10day TRIN 1.00 CYCLE 4/ DAY 2/ avg 24 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle 3 appears to have ended on Wednesday, two days earlier than our target date of Jan 26. TRIN, GTSOSC and Large Block figures all reached overbought levels. We only need a significant GTSOSC break below GTSMA to confirm that Cycle 4 ,down, has begun. When this occurs, another Sell Signal will be added to the three we have issued since last summer. Cycle 4 tends to be complex and choppy but its downside effects tend to last for about 24 business days. We thus expect declining markets until about Feb 28. |
| Date: 2007-01-14 S&P Value: 1430 |
| GTSOSC +157 GTSMA +101 10day TRIN 1.12 CYCLE 3/ DAY 5/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last update we said, "be alert for the start of Cycle 3 up;" and we expected some " more oversold GTSOSC and TRIN numbers" that, " may take the form of a sharp down then up reversal day." That day occurred on Tuesday , 9 Jan with a closing TRIN reading of 1.56, setting the stage for Cycle 3 to carry the markets up for the remainder of the week. Cycle 3 tends to produce sharp rallies of short duration , and we are 5 days into the Cycle already. Our target date for the top of Cycle 3 is Jan 26. |
| Date: 2007-01-06 S&P Value: 1410 |
| GTSOSC -3 GTSMA +125 10day TRIN 1.14 CYCLE 2/ DAY 20/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: In our last update on Dec 16 we said, "we expect stock markets to trend downwards for about another 9 business days." and Cycle 2 to form a " double bottom pattern before Cycle 3 turns the markets up." (see Learn GTSOSC page) Well it has been 12 business days so far and Cycle 2 likely made it's first bottom on Dec 22 and is now heading down again after a Xmas week bounce. The indicators show GTSOSC at its lowest point since August but not oversold, and 10 day TRIN only at a neutral level. Cycle 2 is beyond the average duration, so could complete very soon. The next cycle expected is Cycle 3, which is typically a short, sharp up cycle. We think Cycle 2 may carry a little further to at least show some more oversold GTSOSC and TRIN numbers but it may take the form of a sharp down then up reversal day. We will thus continue in Sell Status but be alert for the start of Cycle 3 up. |
| Date: 2006-12-16 S&P Value: 1425 |
| GTSOSC +196 GTSMA +225 10day TRIN 1.00 CYCLE 2/ DAY 8/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: The stock market's upward momentum continued this week, ignoring the negative signals of Cycle 2, as it has all expected down cycles since July. At this point we can only summarize our indicators again and state what the stock market "normally" does in the face of such numbers. GTSOSC is Overbought and below GTSMA and 10-day TRIN is overbought. In such circumstances and at this point in our pattern( 8th day of Cycle 2), we expect stock markets to trend downwards for about another 9 business days. Another characteristic unique to Cycle 2 is a double bottom pattern before Cycle 3 turns the markets up. (see Learn GTSOSC page) We thus continue to expect a drop in the stock markets, lasting until year end. |
| Date: 2006-12-09 S&P Value: 1410 |
| GTSOSC +200 GTSMA +222 10day TRIN 1.11 CYCLE 2/ DAY 3/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said that we thought, " Cycle 2, down had begun and that we expected downward pressure on the stock markets until about December 19 th. Cycle 1 had a little further to run however, and it carried until Tuesday before Cycle 2 carried the GTSOSC below GTSMA. Our expectations for falling stock indexes remain the same as last week, but we have adjusted our target date for completion of Cycle 2 to December 29. |
| Date: 2006-12-09 S&P Value: 1410 |
| GTSOSC +200 GTSMA +222 10day TRIN 1.11 CYCLE 2/ DAY 3/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said that we thought, " Cycle 2, down had begun and that we expected downward pressure on the stock markets until about December 19 th. Cycle 1 had a little further to run however, and it carried until Tuesday before Cycle 2 carried the GTSOSC below GTSMA. Our expectations for falling stock indexes remain the same as last week, but we have adjusted our target date for completion of Cycle 2 to December 29. |
| Date: 2006-12-02 S&P Value: 1397 |
| GTSOSC +213 GTSMA +220 10day TRIN 1.16 CYCLE 2/ DAY 6/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said we were, " expecting the stock markets to turn down into Cycle 2 next week." Well the market followed that pattern very sharply on Monday and then spent the rest of the week climbing back to retest the Cycle 1 highs. We still believe Cycle 2, down has begun and expect downward pressure on the stock markets until about December 19 th. |
| Date: 2006-11-25 S&P Value: 1401 |
| GTSOSC +232 GTSMA +208 10day TRIN 1.04 CYCLE 1/ DAY 14/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said "our GTSOSC and 10 day TRIN levels are both at overbought levels and Cycle 1 is likely to end within a week." This forecast remains in force as we approach our expected top date of Nov 27. We are therefore continuing with Sell Signal status, expecting the stock markets to turn down into Cycle 2 next week. |
| Date: 2006-11-11 S&P Value: 1401 |
| GTSOSC +234 GTSMA +169 10day TRIN 1.00 CYCLE 1/ DAY 10/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said that our data, " could indicate that Cycle C ended with the sell off on 3 Nov and an intervening Cycle 1 may be in progress, which could support the markets for another couple of weeks." This proved to be the case and we have changed the labelling on our charts to show that we have completed 10 days of Cycle 1. We decided not to issue a Cover Signal this week, however because our GTSOSC and 10 day TRIN levels are both at overbought levels and Cycle 1 is likely to end within a week. We are therefore continuing with Sell Signal status, expecting the stock markets to turn down into Cycle 2 by about November 27. |
| Date: 2006-11-04 S&P Value: 1364 |
| GTSOSC +65 GTSMA +188 10day TRIN 1.15 CYCLE C/ DAY 14/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said, " On Friday the confirmation Sell Signal we were looking for took place". This past week's drop in the markets is consistent with our call of a Cycle C down, but GTSOSC is still well above normal oversold levels, so we expect further selling in the stock markets next week. An average length Cycle C should exert downside pressure until at least November 10. |
| Date: 2006-10-28 S&P Value: 1377 |
| GTSOSC +197 GTSMA +227 10day TRIN 1.15 CYCLE C/ DAY 9/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "Cycle C appears to have started on Tuesday, 17 Oct. and GTSOSC is just crossing GTSMA, pointing down. We expect an acceleration to the downside next week and a sharp decline in the stock markets." Well, the buyers had some life in them yet, and it took most of the week to use up the overshoot bullishness from Cycle B and finally turn the markets down. On Friday the confirmation Sell Signal we were looking for took place , as GTSOSC crossed below GTSMA by 30 points. We have therefore recorded a third E-mini short position, and expect the downside influence of Cycle C to last until at least November 10. |
| Date: 2006-10-21 S&P Value: 1369 |
| GTSOSC +203 GTSMA +211 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE C/ DAY 4/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "Everything is poised for the start of Cycle C , which, is expected to carry the stock markets down, in the worst sell-off since May/June of this year." Well, Cycle C appears to have started on Tuesday, 17 Oct. and GTSOSC is just crossing GTSMA, pointing down. We expect an acceleration to the downside next week and a sharp decline in the stock markets. The downside influence of Cycle C should last until about November 10. We are maintaining our Sell Signal status, and intend to add a third E-mini short position next week, if the GTSOSC break below GTSMA becomes sufficient to confirm that Cycle C has begun. |
| Date: 2006-10-14 S&P Value: 1366 |
| GTSOSC +242 GTSMA +174 10day TRIN .99 CYCLE B/ DAY 15/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Despite a continued divergence between our indicators, which have not been able to push above the Cycle 5 levels, Cycle B continued to push the markets to new highs this week. Cycle B has also reached 15 days; a normal duration for completion. Everything is poised for the start of Cycle C , which, as we stated last week, is expected "to carry the stock markets down, in the worst sell-off since May/June of this year." We are maintaining our Sell Signal status, expecting Cycle C to begin next week. |
| Date: 2006-10-07 S&P Value: 1350 |
| GTSOSC +163 GTSMA +150 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE B/ DAY 10/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle B continued to push to new highs this week, "in price, but not on the GTSOSC, which signals the unsustainable nature of this rally." We are maintaining our Sell Signal status. We caution that some further upside may still be expected in the markets until the Cycle B completes, which may occur at any time now, but is certainly expected by October 13. Following that top, we expect Cycle C to carry the stock markets down in the worst sell-off since May/June of this year. |
| Date: 2006-09-30 S&P Value: 1336 |
| GTSOSC +140 GTSMA +160 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE B/ DAY 5/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Little change from our comments in the Special update on Tuesday, except that GTSOSC is again below GTSMA and we are 3 days closer to an important top in the stock markets. We are currently in a Cycle B which is, as stated on our Learn GTSOSC page, " A choppy die-hard attempt by bulls to take the market back towards highs seen at the top of Cycle 5. Sometimes even reaches new highs in price, but not on the GTSOSC, which signals the unsustainable nature of this rally." We would normally issue a Cover Signal for the duration of Cycle B and go short with a Sell Signal , at the start of Cycle C, but the extended nature of this rally and the proximity of our indicators to a normal topping area lead us to persist with our Sell Signal status. We caution that some further upside may still be expected in the markets until Cycle B completes, which may occur at any time now, but is certainly expected by October 13. |
| Date: 2006-09-26 S&P Value: 1336 |
| GTSOSC +176 GTSMA +153 10day TRIN 1.04 CYCLE B/ DAY 2/ avg 15 (see charts below) SPECIAL UPDATE: In our Weekend Update we said, " Cycle A has already been in force for 13 of an average 15 days." What we expected was a sharp sell-off to complete Cycle A. Today's action however, convinces us that Cycle A actually completed last Friday and it was unable to cause any further sell-off in the markets. We are currently in a Cycle B which is, as stated on our Learn GTSOSC page, " A choppy die-hard attempt by bulls to take the market back towards highs seen at the top of Cycle 5. Sometimes even reaches new highs in price, but not on the GTSOSC, which signals the unsustainable nature of this rally." We would normally issue a Cover Signal for the duration of Cycle B and go short with a Sell Signal , at the start of Cycle C, but the extended nature of this rally and the proximity of our indicators to a normal topping area lead us to persist with our Sell Signal status. We caution that some further upside is to be expected in the markets until Cycle B completes, expected about October 13. |
| Date: 2006-09-23 S&P Value: 1315 |
| GTSOSC +74 GTSMA +149 10day TRIN 1.07 CYCLE A/ DAY 13/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Stock market action this week finally showed signs of succumbing to the downward pressures of Cycle A. Our indicators, GTSOSC and TRIN, continue to point down, so further selling should be expected next week. Cycle A has already been in force for 13 of an average 15 days however, so whatever damage it has yet to do to stock prices is likely to occur over the next week or two. Such a sell-off should carry our indicators near oversold levels and set the stage for a Cycle B rally. (See Learn GTSOSC page for descriptions of the typical A, B and C cycle characteristics.) We are maintaining our Sell Signal status, expecting downward pressure on the stock markets until about September 27. |
| Date: 2006-09-16 S&P Value: 1320 |
| GTSOSC +196 GTSMA +193 10day TRIN 1.01 CYCLE A/ DAY 8/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: There is no change in our opinion this week. Despite the fact that Cycle A has not yet turned the markets down, our indicators, GTSOSC and TRIN, continue to warn that the top is near. We are maintaining our Sell Signal status, expecting downward pressure on the stock markets until about September 27. |
| Date: 2006-09-10 S&P Value: 1299 |
| GTSOSC +126 GTSMA +183 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE A/ DAY 3/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: It's been a long, sunny, hot and beautiful summer ! Good for doing anything but paying attention to the stock market. After our Sell Signal of July 13, the S&P fell 17 points, to 1225 on July 18, as the bottom of a very short Cycle 4. The sellers, with some nice profits since the top of Cycle 1, at 1327, decided to take the rest of the summer off. While they were away , the die-hard bulls took advantage of Cycle 5's upward trend to pump the market back up, slowly (35 business days), laboriously, like a leaking lifeboat, to recoup almost 90 % of its spring sell-off. When the sellers returned, this week, from their fun-filled summer, they immediately began punching new holes in the lifeboat! This action shows up in our indicators as another significant breakdown of GTSOSC below GTSMA and we believe, heralds the beginning of Cycle A, which should see the sellers push the S&P 500 down for about 15 business days, to September 27. We are maintaining our Sell Signal status. |
| Date: 2006-09-02 S&P Value: 1311 |
| GTSOSC +272 GTSMA +199 10day TRIN 1.08 CYCLE 5/ DAY 34/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we thought Cycle A had begun but we were mistaken. Cycle 5 continues to drag out its laborious topping action and is now twice its normal length. We continue to anticipate a downturn in Cycle A and are maintaining our Sell Signal status. We will update the analysis as soon as Cycle A confirms it has begun. |
| Date: 2006-08-26 S&P Value: 1295 |
| GTSOSC +126 GTSMA +136 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE A/ DAY 5/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said " a reversal to the downside is very near." and on Tuesday the Cycle A downtrend began. For the characteristics to be expected during a Cycle A decline see our LEARN GTSOSC page. We are maintaining our Sell Signal status, expecting Cycle A to exert downside pressure on the stock markets until about September 12 . |
| Date: 2006-08-19 S&P Value: 1302 |
| GTSOSC +240 GTSMA +139 10day TRIN 1.04 CYCLE 5/ DAY 24/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said Cycle 5 was complete, but stressed that the " 10-day TRIN figure did not reach normal overbought levels for the top of Cycle 5, and has moved well away from overbought. This indicates that a small rally may occur, over a few days, before the downtrend takes hold." Well, this week's rally was a lot more than we expected and convinces us that the downside break by GTSOSC, on August 8, was only a large fluctuation within an incomplete Cycle 5. However, our indicators this week are once again at normal topping levels, and 10-day TRIN has come much closer to overbought. In addition, Cycle 5 is now 7 days longer than its average 17 day duration. This tells us that a reversal to the downside is very near. We are maintaining our Sell Signal status, expecting Cycle A to take hold very soon, and to exert downside pressure on the stock markets until mid-September. |
| Date: 2006-08-12 S&P Value: 1267 |
| GTSOSC +11 GTSMA +123 10day TRIN 1.22 CYCLE A/ DAY 5/ avg 15 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said Cycle 5 "has used up most, if not all of its potential." This proved to be the case, as the S&P 500 trended down over this past week and GTSOSC broke significantly below its GTSMA on Tuesday, thus confirming the start of Cycle A. We now expect downside pressure on the stock markets to intensify and continue until about 25 August. The only caveat here, is that the 10-day TRIN figure (see chart below), did not reach normal overbought levels for the top of Cycle 5, and has moved well away from overbought. This indicates that a small rally may occur, over a few days, before the downtrend takes hold. We continue our Sell Signal status and are doubling up on our E-mini short position, expecting a sharp sell-off until Cycle A bottoms about August 25. |
| Date: 2006-08-05 S&P Value: 1279 |
| GTSOSC +207 GTSMA +95 10day TRIN 1.08 CYCLE 5/ DAY 14/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we posed the possibility that "Cycle 4 was an unusually short 9 days, ending on 17 July," but that if Cycle 5 were in progress, "it has already used up 9 of an average 17 days and most of the oversold conditions." Well, the action this past week confirms this scenario. Cycle 5 has, in fact, been in progress for the last 14 business days but has used up most, if not all of its potential. The GTSOSC, at +207, is at a normal topping level and 10 day TRIN is approaching overbought levels. The technical S&P 500 price pattern is also ominous, as the Cycle 5 price movement closely resembles a shorter version of the rising "diagonal triangle" formation we described in our May 6 analysis, just before the sharp sell off into mid-June.(see chart below) The market also made a sharp downside reversal yesterday from exactly a price target we stated on June 24. We continue our Sell Signal status, expecting a sharp sell-off once Cycle 5 is confirmed complete. |
| Date: 2006-07-29 S&P Value: 1279 |
| GTSOSC +187 GTSMA +2 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE 4/ DAY 18/ avg 25 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: A quote from our LEARN GTSOSC page about Cycle 4: "This down cycle is often complex and choppy ." This is certainly the case with the current cycle. We thought last weekend that Cycle 4 would continue to pressure the stock markets lower this week but a strong rally took place instead, carrying the S&P 500 back to 1280, where Cycle 4 began. We see two possibilities at this point. Either Cycle 4 was an unusually short 9 days, ending on 17 July, or it has about another 7 business days to run , and this rally was simply part of the complex Cycle 4 behavior mentioned above. If Cycle 5, up did begin on 17 July, it has already used up 9 of an average 17 days and most of the oversold conditions. We will maintain our Sell Signal status for now with the caution that money management, stop loss strategies are prudent, in case Cycle 5 is in fact in progress. Next week should clarify the situation and we will report our analysis accordingly. |
| Date: 2006-07-22 S&P Value: 1240 |
| GTSOSC -106 GTSMA +11 10day TRIN 1.36 CYCLE 4/ DAY 13/ avg 25 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: When we issued our Sell Signal on July 13, we warned that, " the selling may be running a little ahead of itself, so some short term bounce back would not be surprising, before the sell off resumes." The sharp run up to 1262, S&P 500 on Wednesday is sufficient adjustment, we think and Cycle 4 has now resumed its downward progress. We expect the downside pressure to continue for another week or two with August 9 a likely target date for the Cycle 4 bottom. |
| Date: 2006-07-13 S&P Value: 1242 |
| GTSOSC -53 GTSMA +65 10day TRIN 1.34 CYCLE 4/ DAY 7/ avg 25 (see charts below) SIGNAL CHANGE: Last weekend we said, " we anticipate that GTSOSC will make a significant downside crossing of GTSMA soon , which will likely lead us to issue a Sell Signal at that time." That crossing occurred today and confirms that Cycle 4 is in progress. We are thus changing our signal status to Sell Signal and expect Cycle 4 to exert downside pressure on the stock markets until about August 9. The large Daily TRIN number today (2.28), and 10 day TRIN number (1.34) shown above, indicate that the selling may be running a little ahead of itself, so some short term bounce back would not be surprising before the sell off resumes. |
| Date: 2006-07-08 S&P Value: 1265 |
| GTSOSC +92 GTSMA +4 10day TRIN 1.08 CYCLE 4/ DAY 3/ avg 25 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said, " We believe Cycle 3 is very near its top and anticipate a downturn into Cycle 4 soon." It appears Cycle 3 made its top on Monday and that Cycle 4 is in progress. An average length Cycle 4 would exert downside pressure on the stock markets until about August 9th. We are maintaining our COVER SIGNAL, stand aside, status, but we anticipate that GTSOSC will make a significant downside crossing of GTSMA soon , which will likely lead us to issue a Sell Signal at that time. |
| Date: 2006-07-01 S&P Value: 1270 |
| GTSOSC +128 GTSMA -95 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE 3/ DAY 26/ avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said, " A short-lived rally should bring our indicators to normal overbought levels, which will prepare the market for a downturn into Cycle 4," and that we "expect an S&P top of between 1266 and 1294 for Cycle 3." The stock market action this past week has followed exactly that pattern. The S&P 500 reached a high this week of 1276, precisely in the middle of our targeted range. Also GTSOSC and 10 day TRIN have reached normal topping levels. We believe Cycle 3 is very near its top and anticipate a downturn into Cycle 4 soon. We are maintaining our COVER SIGNAL, stand aside, status for now, until GTSOSC makes a significant downside crossing of GTSMA to confirm that Cycle 4 has begun. |
| Date: 2006-06-24 S&P Value: 1245 |
| GTSOSC -110 GTSMA -160 10day TRIN 1.11 CYCLE 3/ DAY 21/ avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said, " another 4 or 5 days of upside pressure from Cycle 3 should still be expected." This week's action was sideways , however, and we see this as preparation for that last leg up of Cycle 3. This cycle is already a week longer than average so we expect completion over the next few days. Our Elliott Wave work leads us to expect an S&P top of between 1266 and 1294 for Cycle 3. A short-lived rally should bring our indicators to normal overbought levels, which will prepare the market for a downturn into Cycle 4. We are maintaining our COVER SIGNAL, stand aside, status, with our next signal change expected about June 30 . |
| Date: 2006-06-17 S&P Value: 1252 |
| GTSOSC -165 GTSMA -92 10day TRIN 1.38 CYCLE 3/ DAY 16/ avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we returned to our Cover Signal, stand aside status and managed to avoid the emotional rollercoaster swing of 30 points down and then back up again, on the S&P 500, to finish the "triple witching" hi-jinks at exactly unchanged for the week. We also said that," Cycle 3 may still have a chance for a short, sharp rally." and Thursday's burst to the upside unquestionably fits that description. Now, although Cycle 3 has reached its average length of 16 business days, it is common for Cycle 2 plus Cycle 3 to total a Fibonacci, 34 days. Our GTSOSC and TRIN indicators are also far below overbought, so another 4 or 5 days of upside pressure from Cycle 3 should still be expected. Our Elliott Wave work leads us to expect an S&P top of between 1266 and 1294 for Cycle 3. This limited potential for profit and short time remaining for Cycle 3, prompts us to continue to stand aside and wait for Cycle 4 to the downside to provide our next trading opportunity, after Cycle 3 runs its course. We are maintaining our COVER SIGNAL, stand aside, status, with our next signal change expected about June 23 . |
| Date: 2006-06-11 S&P Value: 1252 |
| GTSOSC -109 GTSMA -71 10day TRIN 1.32 CYCLE 3/ DAY 11/ avg 16 (see charts below) SIGNAL CHANGE /WEEKEND UPDATE: A rally began after our Buy Signal,of Tuesday, but it was short lived and quickly gave way to a sharp one day sell-off. This triggered our trailing stop-loss at 1264 closing our S&P position at break even. Since 10-day TRIN and GTSOSC figures are still near oversold, Cycle 3 may still have a chance for a short, sharp rally. The GTSOSC has fallen below GTSMA however, so we will revert to our last Weekend Update position, which said " We prefer to wait for an opportunity to participate in Cycle 4 to the downside, after Cycle 3 runs its course." We are thus returning to COVER SIGNAL, stand aside, status, with our next signal change expected about June 16 . |
| Date: 2006-06-06 S&P Value: 1264 |
| GTSOSC -36 GTSMA -104 10day TRIN 1.21 CYCLE 3/ DAY 8/ avg 16 (see charts below) SIGNAL CHANGE: In our weekend update of last Saturday, we said " Although Cycle 3 should typically have a week or two to run, we doubt that will translate into sufficient upside stock market price movement to justify chasing this rally." This turned out to be prudent, since the stock market sold off sharply from that point. This sharp drop in price with still 8 days of a normal Cycle 3 to go, with TRIN near oversold and with GTSOSC closer to its rising GTSMA, makes another profitable rise in the S&P 500 more likely. We are thus changing our signal status to BUY SIGNAL. We will use a close stop on our S&P position and our next signal change is expected about June 16 . |
| Date: 2006-06-03 S&P Value: 1288 |
| GTSOSC +142 GTSMA -125 10day TRIN 1.06 CYCLE 3/ DAY 6/ avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said " a pull back in the stock market is likely required soon, to settle the question," of whether Cycle 3 had begun. The answer came quickly, as a sharp pullback took place into the close Tuesday followed by a strong rally Wednesday and Thursday. This did confirm that Cycle 3 was in progress, as GTSOSC held above its GTSMA on the pullback and then reversed sharply higher. A characteristic reversal oversold reading of above 2.00 also occurred on the daily TRIN figure at the Tuesday low. The rally since then has used up so much of the positive GTSOSC potential, so quickly, that we are reluctant to change our signal status. Although Cycle 3 should typically have a week or two to run, we doubt that will translate into sufficient upside stock market price movement to justify chasing this rally. We prefer to wait for an opportunity to participate in Cycle 4 to the downside, after Cycle 3 runs its course. We remain on COVER SIGNAL, stand aside, status, with our next signal change expected about June 16 . |
| Date: 2006-05-27 S&P Value: 1280 |
| GTSOSC -35 GTSMA -136 10day TRIN 1.20 CYCLE 3/ DAY 2/ avg 16 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last week we said "Cycle 2 may soon give way to a sharp bounce from its first bottom and then try to make a new low as we approach the end of May." This occurred a little faster than expected, as the first bottom was made on May 22 followed by a sharp rally and then a second bottom on May 24. We believe Cycle 3 started from that low. It is however, still possible that the second Cycle 2 bottom may come next week, so we have placed a question mark on the chart. The evidence provided by our indicators certainly supports the view that Cycle 3 has begun, as GTSOSC has made a significant upside crossing of GTSMA and 10 day TRIN reversed sharply from a good oversold. Also the past 2 days of rally show characteristics that fit our description of Cycle 3 on our LEARN GTSOSC page "When Cycle 2 has shown that the market has support (double bottom) buying will often be quite aggressive after the turn." In either case, a pull back in the market is likely required soon, to settle the question, and we will wait for that to decide whether to change our signal status. For now, we remain on COVER SIGNAL, stand aside, status. |
| Date: 2006-05-18 S&P Value: 1262 |
| GTSOSC -243 GTSMA +1 10day TRIN 1.24 CYCLE 2/ DAY 9/ avg 17 (see charts below) SIGNAL CHANGE: It is very gratifying to see our forecast from the last two weekend updates work out so well. The sharp drop in the markets this week is already approaching the 1250 S&P level we had anticipated. Last week however, we mentioned the "double bottom", nature of Cycle 2 and our indicators have reached levels consistent with a short term bottom. GTSOSC is oversold and 245 points below the GTSMA, and 10 day TRIN is as oversold as it has been since August 2005. This leads us to believe that Cycle 2 may soon give way to a sharp bounce from its first bottom and then try to make a new low as we approach the end of May. We are thus, changing our signal status to COVER SIGNAL and are happy to take a $2500 profit on closing our double short position. There will be no Weekend Update on Saturday. |
| Date: 2006-05-13 S&P Value: 1291 |
| GTSOSC -97 GTSMA +66 10day TRIN 1.04 CYCLE 2/ DAY 5/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said, " We expect a sharp reversal into Cycle 2 down, quite soon. " This certainly was the case, as the GTSOSC began to drop immediately and, by Thursday, the S&P 500 began to plunge from 1327 to 1291 to close the week. This action is very much in keeping with our description last weekend, of what was to be expected on completion of the 5th step of a "diagonal triangle." It remains to be seen if the S&P 500 will reach our minimum target of 1250 by the end of Cycle 2, but we expect approximately another 2 weeks of downside pressure. The GTSOSC has dropped so sharply below its GTSMA and the bottom line of the "diagonal triangle" may provide some support, so a short term bounce back may occur. If so, we expect it to be of short duration and to give way to a continuation of the Cycle 2 decline. See our "Learn GTSOSC" page for a description of the "double bottom " nature of Cycle 2. Our SELL SIGNAL status continues, with Cycle 2 expected to exert downside pressure until about May 30. |
| Date: 2006-05-06 S&P Value: 1326 |
| GTSOSC +155 GTSMA +65 10day TRIN 1.01 CYCLE 1/ DAY 17/ avg 17 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Despite our comments over the past couple of weeks, the upside burst in the stock market yesterday forces us to admit that Cycle C did, in fact end on April 11. This was despite the persistently overbought TRIN figures and a neutral GTSOSC number. This means that Cycle 1 up, started at that time and has been trying to carry the stock market higher for the last 17 business days. So what has made reading our indicators so difficult since the end of 2005? Primarily, we think it is the almost trend-less, to choppily higher, nature of the markets so far this year. The GTSOSC cycles have been there as usual, but they have been squeezed within smaller than normal boundaries. To illustrate what we mean, look at the S&P 500 chart below and note the narrowing range of market swings since January . This slightly rising, triangular pattern is widely known by technical stock market analysts as a "rising wedge" or "ending diagonal triangle". It is characterized by 5 swings of three parts each. After completion of the 5th step, a sharp sell-off normally carries the market at least to the level where the pattern began; in this case about 1250 on the S&P 500 index. Look also at the next chart, the GTSOSC chart. We have added lines indicating the boundaries enclosing the GTSOSC values over the same period. Note that, while the market has rising highs and lows over this time period, the GTSOSC pattern is the opposite, with declining tops and bottoms. This divergence between the two charts adds weight to the message of the rising wedge in the market, telling us that the underlying strength of the market is weakening despite the rising prices. Although Cycle 1 may carry the stock market a little higher, it has already reached its average duration of 17 business days. We thus expect a sharp reversal into Cycle 2 down, quite soon. We are thus maintaining our Sell Signal status for now, with the caution that proper money-management techniques are necessary to limit losses at pre-planned levels. |
| Date: 2006-04-29 S&P Value: 1311 |
| GTSOSC +63 GTSMA +21 10day TRIN .94 CYCLE C/ DAY 16/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: This week's market action, although erratic and choppy, left prices unchanged from a week ago and our comments from last weekend still apply: -10 day Trin figures have remained at overbought levels throughout the C cycle so far; -GTSOSC figures barely got below neutral readings (-66) when oversold readings of at least (-200) are normal; -the lowest reading on GTSOSC occured only 6 days into a cycle which averages 19 days; -the bottom on Apr 17 failed to carry the market below that of the A cycle; -a similar short-lived bounce occured in the previous C cycle , last September and it gave way to a 50 point drop in the S&P 500 over the the next 3 days. We are thus maintaining our Sell Signal status for now, with the caution that proper money-management techniques are necessary to limit losses at pre-planned levels, should the rally resume. We are short the E-mini S&P500 and anticipate Cycle C to exert downward pressure until about May 10. |
| Date: 2006-04-22 S&P Value: 1311 |
| GTSOSC +84 GTSMA +42 10day TRIN .93 CYCLE C/ DAY 11/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: The "relief rally" we wrote about last weekend merged into an option expiry week, hedge fund rally this week. This buying pressure, along with frightened short covering, combined to carry GTSOSC significantly above The GTSMA. As explained on our "Learn GTSOSC" page, this would normally cause us to issue a buy signal at this point. We are suspicious of this rally, however, for several reasons: -10 day Trin figures have remained at overbought levels throughout the C cycle so far; -GTSOSC figures barely got below neutral readings (-66) when oversold readings of at least (-200) are normal; -the lowest reading on GTSOSC occured only 6 days into a cycle which averages 19 days; -the bottom on Apr 17 failed to carry the market below that of the A cycle; -a similar short-lived bounce occured in the previous C cycle , last September and it gave way to a 50 point drop in the S&P 500 over the the next 3 days. We are thus maintaining our Sell Signal status for now, with the caution that proper money-management techniques are necessary to limit losses at pre-planned levels, should the rally continue. We are short the E-mini S&P500 and anticipate Cycle C to exert downward pressure until about May 3. |
| Date: 2006-04-15 S&P Value: 1289 |
| GTSOSC -55 GTSMA +67 10day TRIN .98 CYCLE C/ DAY 6/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Cycle C continued to pressure the S&P 500 down until Wednesday's close and we saw a small relief rally on Thursday as sellers eased up going into the holiday weekend. Our indicators noted above are still overbought (TRIN) to neutral (GTSOSC). We expect Cycle C to reach GTSOSC numbers below -200 and TRIN above 1.20 before it reaches bottom. This means downside movement in the S&P 500 is likely to continue next week. Our Sell Signal status remains in place, with the expected bottom of Cycle C around April 26. |
| Date: 2006-04-08 S&P Value: 1296 |
| GTSOSC +20 GTSMA +127 10day TRIN .98 CYCLE C/ DAY 2/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Looks like we were a few days early calling the top of Cycle B, as it had enough life left to revisit the recent top one more time this past week, before giving way to Cycle C on Friday. Our Sell Signal status remains in place, and we have adjusted the expected bottom of Cycle C to April 26 |
| Date: 2006-04-01 S&P Value: 1295 |
| GTSOSC +116 GTSMA +154 10day TRIN 1.03 CYCLE C/ DAY 2/ avg 19 (see charts below) WEEKEND UPDATE: Last weekend we said "Cycle B will likely end next week, probably after at least one more attempt to make new highs." That attempt came at the open Thursday and failed within an hour. We believe that top has begun Cycle C which, as stated over the past 2 updates, tends to be a hard down cycle. An average length C cycle should exert downward pressure until April 26 . We are doubling up on our SELL SIGNAL status at this time. |